The Template: The Three Big Forces

I believe that three main forces drive most economic activity: 1) trend line productivity growth, 2) the long-term debt cycle and 3) the short-term debt cycle. Figuratively speaking, they look as shown below:

我认为三大主力驱动着大多数经济活动：1）趋势线生产率增长，2）长期债务周期3）短期债务周期。形象地说，它们如下图所示：

What follows is an explanation of all three of these forces and how, by overlaying the archetypical short-term debt cycle on top of the archetypical long-term debt cycle and overlaying them both on top of the productivity trend line, one can derive a good template for tracking most economic/market movements. While these three forces apply to all countries’ economies, in this study we will look at the U.S. economy over the last 100 years or so as an example to convey the Template. This Template will tell you just about everything I have to say in a nutshell. If you are interested to explore these concepts in more depth you can go into the next two chapters of this book.

以下是对所有这三个力量的解释，以及如何通过将典型的短期债务周期重叠在典型的长期债务周期之上，并将它们覆盖在生产率趋势线之上，可以得出一个好的 跟踪大多数经济/市场运动的模板。虽然这三大力量适用于所有国家的经济，但在这项研究中，我们将以过去100多年的美国经济为例，来传达模板。简单来说，这个模板会告诉你我所说的一切。如果您有兴趣更深入地探索这些概念，可以参考本书的下两章。