The Ugly Deflationary Deleveragings

As shown below, in all of these cases, a) money printing was limited, b) nominal growth was below nominal rates, c) the currency was generally strong, and d) the debt/income ratios rose because of the combination of interest payment costs and nominal incomes falling or stagnating.

如下图所示，在所有这些情况下，a）货币印刷有限，b）名义增长低于名义利率，c）货币普遍较强，d）由于利息支付的组合而使债务/收入比上升成本和名义收入下降或停滞。

The following charts attribute the changes in debt/GDP. More specifically, a black dot conveys the total annualized change in debt/GDP. Each bar breaks up the attribution of this change into the following pieces: changes in GDP (i.e., income) and changes in the nominal value of the debt stock. Income changes are broken into (1) real income changes and (2) inflation. A decline in real GDP shows up as a positive contribution to debt/GDP in the shaded region, while an increase in inflation shows up as a negative contribution. Changes in nominal debt levels are broken into (3) defaults, (4) the amount of new borrowing required just to make interest payments, and (5) whatever increases or decreases in borrowing that occur beyond that. So, defaults show up as negatives, while interest payments show up as positives and new borrowing beyond interest payments as positives or negatives (depending on whether new debt was created or paid down).

以下图表归因于债务/国内生产总值的变化。更具体地说，一个黑点传达债务/国内生产总值的年度总变化。每个酒吧将这一变化归因于以下几个方面：国内生产总值（即收入）的变化以及债务名义价值的变化。收入变动分为（1）实际收入变动和（2）通货膨胀。实际GDP的下降在阴影区域对债务/国内生产总值的积极贡献，而通货膨胀的增长则显示为负面贡献。名义债务水平的变动分为（3）违约，（4）仅用于支付利息的新借款金额，（5）除借款以外的借款增减。因此，违约显示为负数，而利息支出显示为利息支付为正面或负面的积极因素和新借款（取决于新债务是创造还是支付）。