US Deleveraging 1930s

This document provides a timeline for the U.S. Deleveraging in the 1930s. I wrote it in a way to both make clear important cause and effect relationships and to convey an up-close feeling of what it was like to go through the experience as an investor. As a result, sometimes you will read about market action in detail that has no historical importance but provides perspective for investors trying to navigate such moves. For example, throughout this period there were giant market whip-saws and swings in sentiment that misled and hurt many. Also, the waves of destruction in asset values that occurred through changing market values and asset confiscations were enormous. So it is important that we, as managers of our clients’ wealth, visualize how we would have navigated these changes. Only by going through this experience virtually, as well as going through the other deleveragings (the Weimar Republic in the 1920s, Latin America in the 1980s and Japan in the 1990s) and testing our strategies can we be confident that we can successfully navigate the next few years.

本文件为20世纪30年代的美国去杠杆化提供了时间表。我以一种方式写出来，既能做出明确的重要因果关系，也能够表达一种对投资者的经验感兴趣的感觉。因此，有时您会详细阅读有关市场行为的详细信息，对历史重要性没有任何意义，但为投资者试图开展此类举措提供了视角。例如，在整个这个时期，有巨大的市场鞭子和摇摆的情绪误导和伤害许多人。此外，通过不断变化的市场价值和资产没收发生的资产价值破坏浪潮是巨大的。所以重要的是，作为我们客户财富的经理，我们可以看出我们将如何浏览这些变化。只有通过这种经验，以及经历其他去杠杆化（20世纪20年代的魏玛共和国，20世纪80年代的拉丁美洲和20世纪90年代的日本），并测试我们的战略，我们才有信心我们可以成功地浏览下一个几年。

This timeline is meant to be read with frequent reference to the accompanying charts that show all markets and stats that I believe are important. Facts and notes for the timeline were taken from several books shown in the bibliography in the back.

这个时间表的意图是经常参考附带的图表，显示我认为重要的所有市场和统计数据。时间表的事实和笔记来自后面参考书目中显示的几本书。

• Preface

• Conditions in 1929 Leading up to the Crash

• 1930

  • First Half: Optimism Returns

  • Second Half: Trade Wars, Economic Weakness, Financial Losses, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act

• 1931

  • 1Q: Reasoned Optimism Gives Way to Gloom as Economy Continues to Deteriorate

  • 2Q: Problems Brew in Europe Leading to International Crisis

  • 3Q: German Debt Moratorium and the Run on Sterling

  • 4Q: International Crisis Hurts Domestic Markets

• 1932.

  • First Half: Government Intervention Unable to Halt Economic Decline

  • Second Half: Liquidity Crisis Leads to Last Leg Down, Market Bottoms in June

  • High Volatility as Roosevelt’s Election Approaches, Global Picture Worsens

• 1933

  • Uncertainty Dominates Before Roosevelt’s Inauguration in March

  • First Hundred Days: Optimism from Bank Holiday, Devaluation of Dollar,and Large Fiscal stimulus

• 1934-1938

  • Competitive Currency Devaluations Across the Developed World Economic Recovery from 1934-1937

  • Economic Slump in 1938

• Appendix One: Roosevelt’s Inaugural Address

• Appendix Two: Legislative Changes 1930-1937