4Q1931

International Crisis Shakes Domestic Markets 国际危机震撼国内市场

The decline in business conditions accelerated sharply after the international crisis as those who controlled businesses were the capitalists and capital preservation was their primary objective. Bank failures were at record levels in the last quarter of 1931, and many industries, particularly railroads, began to suffer severe losses. The Gross National Product dropped 7.7% in constant dollars. Unemployment approached 25% by the end of the year While National Income had declined by 31% in current dollars from the peak, the income of all businesses fell 65%. Corporate profits had declined from 10% of National Income to a loss equal to a negative 1 1⁄2% of National Income.

国际危机之后，经营状况的下滑急剧加剧，因为控股企业是资本家，资本保值是他们的主要目标。银行倒闭在1931年的最后一个季度处于创纪录水平，许多行业，特别是铁路，开始遭受严重损失。国民生产总值按固定美元下跌7.7％。失业率在年底前接近25％虽然全国收入从高峰下降了31％，但所有企业的收入都下降了65％。公司利润从全国收入的10％下降到相当于国民收入负1/2％的损失

At the time, hardly anyone believed that more and cheaper credit availability would have stimulated business, because even with interest rates of zero, the real cost of more borrowing was very high and the industries which needed credit weren’t good credits It was unimaginable then, and comparably implausible to us now, that banks and other investors will lend to unsound borrowers in a deflation.

当时，几乎没有人认为信贷可用性越来越便宜会刺激业务，因为即使利率为零，更多借款的实际成本非常高，需要信贷的行业也不是很好的信用。不可想象的是，现在我们相当不可信的是，银行和其他投资者将在通货紧缩中借款给借款人。

In September 1931, the dollar ceased to be a safe haven. Since other countries defaulted and devalued, their needs for dollars fell and the United States’ budget and credit problems started to raise concerns140 that the U.S. would have to choose between default and devaluation. So, after the sterling crisis and the U.S. banking crisis worsened, gold reserves fell, the economy fell, and there was a run on banks U.S. gold reserves increased right up to the week ending Saturday, September 19, 1931—the day before the United Kingdom decided to suspend gold payments. The U.S. gold outflow began on the following Monday, when foreign banks, including the Bank of France, bought almost $100 million in gold from the Federal Reserve. Within three weeks of the suspension of sterling, the United States lost approximately 10% of its reserves The Fed raised the discount rate substantially, hoping that higher interest rates would attract investors back

1931年9月，美元不再是一个安全的避风港。由于其他国家违约和贬值，他们对美元的需求下降，美国的预算和信贷问题开始引起关切，美国将不得不在违约与贬值之间进行选择。所以，在英镑危机和美国银行业危机恶化之后，黄金储备下滑，经济下滑，银行有所下滑美国黄金储备上涨至1931年9月19日（星期六）的一周 - 前一天英国决定暂停黄金付款。美国的黄金外汇在下周一开始，当时包括法国银行在内的外国银行从美联储购买了近1亿美元的黄金。在英镑暂停的三个星期内，美国损失了约10％的储备美联储大幅提高贴现率，希望利率上调将吸引投资者。

To counter the gold outflow, the New York Federal Reserve Bank raised its discount rate from 1 1⁄2% to 2 1/2% on October 8th, but foreign investors’ concerns had reached the point of not being affected by changes in interest rates. Rumors abroad that the United States would go off the gold standard as the U.K. did prompted a record one-day gold outflow on October 14th. The New York Federal Reserve Bank discount rate was raised another 1% to 3 1⁄2% the next day. The next week, France agreed not to withdraw any more gold from the United States, and both countries agreed to consult each other before advancing any new proposals for extending the war debts moratorium.

为了对付黄金流出，纽约联邦储备银行10月8日将贴现率从1 1/2％提高到2 1/2％，但外国投资者的担忧已经达到不受利率变动影响的程度。美国国外的谣言说，美国将作为英国的黄金标准下跌，确实在10月14日出现了创纪录的一天黄金流出。纽约联邦储备银行的贴现率在第二天再次上涨1％至3 1/2％。下周，法国同意不再从美国撤出黄金，两国同意互相磋商，提出延长拖欠战争债务的新提案

However, the supply-demand imbalance for dollars continued to worsen as the Federal government’s deficit became too big to fund in September 1931, so the Federal Reserve bought U.S. long bonds.

然而，由于联邦政府在1931年9月份的赤字太大而无法提供资金，美元供求不平衡继续恶化，所以美联储买下了美国长期债券。

In mid-October Canada prohibited the exportation of gold , causing investors who tried to protect themselves by hiding in gold to be trapped.

加拿大10月中旬禁止出口黄金，导致投资者试图通过隐藏黄金来保护自己被困

Besides foreigners withholding gold,146 there was domestic hoarding of gold and currency by U.S. individuals There was a sharp contraction in bank deposits generally during the last quarter of 1931 as foreigners pulled out and individuals shifted bank deposits into gold and cash hoarding Reflecting this, currency in circulation, including gold and silver, jumped by about 20% from June 1931 to December.

除了外国人扣除黄金外，还有美国国内囤积黄金和货币因为外国人退出，个人将银行存款转为黄金和现金囤积，一般在1931年的最后一个季度，银行存款大幅收缩。反映这一点，流通货币，包括黄金和白银，从1931年6月到1994年12月，涨了约20％

The Fed’s tightening to keep capital produced a cash shortage that caused loans to be called. Bankers began to call in loans from many sectors, trying to increase their cash reserves. Many homes and farms were forced into foreclosure because their loans weren’t renewed. Company bankruptcies were increased as creditors called in all the loans to debtors. The contraction in the money supply was not caused by the Federal Reserve intentionally, but because of the behavior seeking safety via the withdrawal of foreign capital, domestic hoarding, and the foreclosure on property which further depressed the values of tangible assets.

美联储紧缩资本产生了现金短缺，导致贷款被调用。银行家开始向多个行业贷款，试图增加现金储备。许多家庭和农场因为贷款没有更新而被迫抵押。随着债权人向债务人提供所有贷款，公司破产增加。货币供应量的缩减并非联邦储备委员会故意造成的，而是因为通过撤出外资寻求安全的行为，国内囤积物，以及进一步遏制有形资产价值的物业的止赎权。

The Federal Reserve was given authority to buy U.S. T-bonds in April 1932 so it bought them as deficits increased and foreign investors withdrew funds. Because of the balance of payments imbalance being financed through the Fed’s liquidity creation, a currency crisis developed The chart below shows Fed purchases and holdings of government securities from January 1931 to December 1932. As shown, the balance sheet was significantly expanded by this process.

美联储有权在1932年4月份买入美国的债券，所以由于赤字增加，外国投资者退出资金，因此买入。由于通过美联储流动性创造融资的国际收支不平衡，货币危机发生了。下图显示了美联储在1931年1月至1932年12月期间购买和持有的政府证券。如图所示，资产负债表在此过程中得到了显着的扩大。

Through the 1920s and up until 1933, the money supply was essentially linked to the supply of gold and, through the multiplier effect, the supply of money created the supply of credit and that credit growth funded economic growth. In the 1920s,152 $1 in gold led to $13 in debt as money was lent and relent to create an amount of debt that was many times the supply of money. Of course, debt is the promise to deliver money, so when this ratio became high, the system became precariously balanced. When credit starts to fall, usually because there is not enough money to meet debt obligations, credit falls and the demand for money increases, so the ratio falls.

直到20世纪20年代直到1933年，货币供应与黄金供应基本相关，通过乘数效应，货币供应创造了信贷供给，信贷增长为经济增长提供资金。在20世纪20年代，152美元的黄金导致了13美元的债务，因为资金被借出，并且依赖于创造一个多少钱的债务。当然，债务是交付货币的承诺，所以当这个比率变高时，这个制度变得不平衡。当信贷开始下降时，通常是因为没有足够的资金来履行债务，信贷下降，货币需求增加，所以比例下降。

When the supply of money is linked to the supply of gold, debt must contract more and economic activity must also fall more than if the supply of money can be increased. When investors lose confidence in a bank or the government and they hoard their assets (e.g., in cash and gold), as was the case during the Depression, the hoarding reduces the availability of credit. Since the Fed could not create gold, its only option was to create paper money. It was then believed that central banks could not create much paper money while on a gold standard because such a move would revive Gresham’s law of bad money driving out the good If investors wanted to cash in their US bonds, notes and bills at the same time, the government would be forced to choose between not increasing the money supply, which would lead to interest rates rising, or printing money. That is because not enough cash as measured through M1 exists to cover all the debt obligations. Of course, as long as investors feel comfortable with bonds as a “store of wealth,” and don’t need the cash, everything is fine. But when confidence in bonds is lost and/or cash is needed, investors run in the direction of cash and gold. There is simply not enough cash to go around, especially as gold is taken out of reserves, and a massive contraction takes place. When nations began to default on their bonds and the need of the federal governments to borrow more than investors would lend, confidence in bonds and government debt maintaining their value gave way, driving investors into gold and cash for safety. Because debt multiplies the value of these tangible assets, it creates a bubble which eventually comes to a head creating a stampede into cash. This has been true through history, all the way back to Roman times and before.

当货币供应与黄金供应有关时，债务必须更多地合约，经济活动也必须比提高货币供应量更多。当投资者对银行或政府失去信心并且囤积资产（例如现金和黄金）时，如同大萧条时期一样，囤积物减少了信贷的可用性。由于美联储不能创造黄金，唯一的选择就是创造纸币。那么相信中央银行在黄金标准下不能创造太多的纸币，因为这样的举措会使Gresham的不良资金的法律恢复正常，从而驱使出货如果投资者想在美国的债券，票据和票据中兑现现金在同一时间，政府将不得不选择不增加货币供应量，这将导致利率上涨或打印资金。那是因为没有足够的现金通过M1来衡量，以涵盖所有的债务。当然，只要投资者将债券作为“财富之门”感到舒适，并且不需要现金，一切都很好。但是，当债券的信心丧失和/或需要现金时，投资者就会走向现金和黄金的方向。现金完全没有足够的余地，特别是黄金从储备中取出，大量收缩。当国家开始违约债券，联邦政府需要借款超过投资者时，借贷，债券和政府债务的信心维持其价值，使投资者获得黄金和现金安全。因为债务增加了这些有形资产的价值，所以造成了一个泡沫，最终导致了一个头脑，创造了一个踩踏现金。历史上一直是这样，一直追溯到罗马时代和之前

During August, runs for cash closed most of the banks in Toledo and Omaha and banks in L.A., New York and Brooklyn. Bank failures accelerated in July and August In the Depression, the bank failures were primarily due to the declines in corporate bond, stock, real estate, and commodities values, as well as declines in business generally, which destroyed asset values and income. The weakness of the economy became apparent only in the summer months, as real estate foreclosures accelerated, wage and salary cuts were initiated in major industries, and domestic and international trade fell off sharply. Then, as now, real estate was one of the weakest areas of the economy. Real estate values had collapsed earlier in some regions, particularly in Florida and South Carolina.

8月份，托莱多和奥马哈的大部分银行和纽约州布鲁克林的银行都有现金收盘。七月和八月银行倒闭加速在大萧条中，银行倒闭主要是由于公司债券，股票，房地产和商品价值的下降以及一般业务下滑，破坏了资产价值和收入。随着房地产止赎加快，主要行业工资和减薪，国内外贸易大幅下滑，经济疲软显现在夏季。那么现在，房地产是经济最薄弱的地区之一。一些地区的房地产价值已经萎缩，特别是佛罗里达州和南卡罗来纳州。

This problem spread to New York where there were foreclosures on commercial properties and rental buildings by savings banks and life insurance companies which produced a rash of foreclosure auctions beginning in June 1931 Then, as now, the collapse of real estate values generated increased uneasiness towards the banks. The bubble in real estate was reflected in real estate loans by national banks doubling from 5% of loans in 1928 to 10% in 1930.

这个问题蔓延到纽约，存储银行和人寿保险公司的商业物业和租赁建筑物遭到止赎，这些公司从1931年6月开始出现了一些止赎性拍卖然后，如现在，房地产价值的崩溃导致了对不平等的不安银行。房地产泡沫反映在国家银行的房地产贷款中，从1928年的5％增加到1930年的10％。

Because illiquid assets could not be sold to raise liquidity, President Hoover wanted to allow the Federal Reserve to accept illiquid collateral to lend against.

由于无法出售流动性资产以提高流动性，胡佛总统希望允许美联储接受非流动资产抵押贷款。

On December 10, 1931, Chase securities announced write-downs of $120 million to account for losses in securities still carried at pre-Crash values. Similar credit problems were pervasive. Banks’ net profits were reduced from over $556 million in 1929 to $306 million in 1930 to virtually zero in 1931. Securities losses at banks were a record $264 million in 1931 compared with $109 million in 1930 and $95 million in 1929. Loan losses were a record $295 million compared with $195 million in 1930 and $140 million in 1929. Interest earned on loans, bills and commercial paper dropped from $1.6 billion in 1929 to $1.3 billion in 1930 and $1.1 billion 1931. Then, as now, the banks were squeezed from every direction.159

1931年12月10日，大通证券宣布减免1.2亿美元，用于支付以Crash价值计价的证券损失。类似的信用问题是普遍存在的。银行的净利润从1929年的5.56亿美元减少到1930年的3.06亿美元，几乎为零。1931年，银行的证券损失是创纪录的2.31亿美元，而1930年为1.10亿美元，1929年为9 500万美元。贷款损失为创纪录2.95亿美元，而1930年为1.95亿美元，1929年为1.40亿美元。贷款，票据和商业票据的利息从1929年的16亿美元下降到1930年的13亿美元，1931年为11亿美元。然后，现在银行被迫从每一个方向

All sorts of moves were made to hide the real values of assets of banks. Such attempts to hide losses in deleveragings are typical. For example, laws were changed to preserve the fiction of profits, a moratorium was declared on removing railroad bonds from the legal investment list in New York State, so that banks did not have to realize losses on the sale of bonds taken off the “legal list”, and federal authorities allowed banks to carry at par all U.S. bonds and other bonds within the four highest credit ratings (Baa to Aaa). 160

各种举措都是为了隐藏银行资产的真正价值。隐藏在去杠杆化中的损失的这种尝试是典型的。例如，改变法律来维护利润的虚构，暂停从纽约州的法定投资名单上清除铁路债券，使银行不必因出售“法律”列表“，而联邦当局允许银行在四个最高信用评级（Baa至Aaa）内完成所有美国债券和其他债券。160

Hoover’s “Super Plan”　胡佛的“超级计划”

Then, as now, the administration started to exert pressure on the banks to lend. Hoover’s “Super Plan” to do this created what was known as the National Credit Corporation. Hoover realized that vast sums of assets were frozen and that, combined with international investors’ capital withdrawals, this spelled potential international disaster, so his idea was to create another form of central bank in a sense. The National Credit Corporation would be a private organization funded by $500 million in deposit contributions from the banks themselves. In turn, these funds would be used to bail out banks with cash flow problems by lending them cash against good collateral held on their books. He believed that this was essential to bring a halt to the bank failures and the foreclosures which further increased fears among the people and led to domestic hoarding of gold.

那么，现在呢，行政当局呢开始给银行施加压力。胡佛的“超级计划”这样做创造了所谓的国家信用公司。胡佛意识到，大量资产被冻结，结合国际投资者的资本回购，这引发了潜在的国际灾难，所以他的想法是在某种意义上创造另一种形式的中央银行。国家信贷公司将是一家由银行本身提供的5亿美元存款捐款资助的私人机构。反过来，这些资金将用于通过向存在现金流量问题的银行提供现金，抵押在他们的书籍上的良好抵押品。他认为这是停止银行倒闭和止赎，这进一步加剧了人民的恐惧，导致国内囤积黄金。

Hoover’s plan began to gel prior to the British default of September 21, 1931. At a confidential meeting during early September, Hoover called to the White House the entire Advisor Council of the Federal Reserve Board members, which consisted of 24 bankers and Treasury officials, and proposed that the banks pool together $500 million for the creation of this new project. In addition, he proposed that this new pool be given borrowing powers of $1 billion, thus allowing them to buy a substantial amount of illiquid assets to take them off banks’ balance sheets.

胡佛的计划在1931年9月21日的英国违约之前开始凝结。在9月初的秘密会议上，胡佛呼吁白宫，联邦储备委员会成员的整个顾问委员会成员包括24名银行家和财政官员，并建议银行汇集5亿美元用于创建这一新项目。此外，他建议这个新集合的借款权值为10亿美元，从而允许他们购买大量非流动资产，将其从银行的资产负债表中扣除。

Then the British default took place. Suddenly the gold reserves of the U.S. fell. Eleven days later, Hoover called a special meeting of the leading men from the banks, insurance and loan agencies along with several top government officials. Hoover wanted to avoid publicity on this meeting, so the meeting took place on October 4, at the home of Andrew Mellon rather than at the White House Hoover later wrote that many attending the meeting held at Mellon’s house did not want to contribute funds to this central pool and urged that the government should put up the money. But Hoover was strongly against using taxpayer’s money, so the meeting ended with the bankers agreeing to call a meeting of all major New York banks for the following day.

那么英国的违约事件就发生了。突然，美国的黄金储备下滑。十一天后，胡佛与几位政府高级官员举行了银行，保险和贷款机构领导人的特别会议。胡佛想避免在这次会议上的宣传，所以会议是在10月4日在安德鲁梅隆的家而不是在白宫进行的胡佛后来写道，许多参加在梅隆的房子的会议都不想捐款到这个中央游泳池，并敦促政府应该放钱。但胡佛强烈反对使用纳税人的钱，所以会议结束时，银行家同意在第二天召开所有纽约主要银行的会议。

Hoover had also proposed that banks and insurance companies hold back on foreclosures and that a central system of discounting mortgages should be established. Again, the concept was a central bank which would accept mortgages in the same manner as the Fed accepts cash or liquid notes. Basically this is what the Fed is doing now. The savings and loan group agreed with Hoover’s proposals which called for an immediate end to foreclosures upon responsible people. The insurance industry refused to go along with the proposed banking structure which would have 12 districts and accept mortgages as deposits.

胡佛还提出，银行和保险公司阻止赎回权，并应建立中央的按揭贴现制度。再次，这个概念是一个中央银行，接受抵押贷款的方式与美联储接受现金或流动票据一样。基本上这是美联储现在在做什么。储蓄和贷款集团同意胡佛的建议，要求立即结束负责人的止赎。保险业拒绝与拟建立的12个区域的银行业结构相一致，接受抵押贷款作为存款。

Hoover then met with Congressional leaders at the White House on October 6. He found them unwilling to use tax payer money to fund any government structure to provide stability for the real estate situation Hoover then created the Home Loan Banks which stood in the middle of the savings and loans. He also created the National Credit Corporation, which further helped confidence in banks.

胡佛于十月六日在白宫与国会领导人会面。他发现他们不愿意使用纳税人的资金为任何政府机构提供资金，为房地产业务提供稳定性胡佛当时建立了位于中间的房屋贷款银行的储蓄和贷款。他还创建了国家信贷公司，进一步帮助了银行的信心。

News of these new plans restored confidence both domestically and internationally. But at first, the Europeans misunderstood these proposals and assumed they would be funded by government, which they felt meant inflation and a decline in U.S. gold reserves. Therefore, initially, this news added some pressure to the dollar coming from Europe. Eventually, they understood the plan and fears that the United States would go into default on its commitment to deliver gold began to subside along with the gold withdrawals going into year end. The concept of this new form of centralized private banking to unlock frozen capital and to help prevent further banking failures was well received by the markets as well The low in the U.S. gold reserves had been reached during the final week in October and it rose steadily throughout November. Stocks also rallied. Everyone became bullish and even the famous investor Roger Babson, who called the stock market’s top in 1929, ran a small ad with its headline “Is Bear Market Over?”

这些新计划的消息恢复了国内和国际的信心。但首先，欧洲人误解了这些建议，并认为他们将由政府出资，这意味着通货膨胀和美国黄金储备的下滑。因此，最初这个消息给来自欧洲的美元带来了一些压力。最终，他们了解这一计划，并担心美国将承诺提供黄金将违约，随着黄金提款进入年底，开始消退。这种新型集中式私人银行解除冻结资本并帮助防止进一步银行倒闭的概念受到市场的好评美国黄金储备的低位在10月份的最后一周达到了整个十一月份稳定。股票也上涨。每个人都变得看涨，甚至着名的投资者罗杰·巴布森（Roger Babson）在1929年被称为股票市场的顶峰，发行了一个小型广告，标题为“熊市上涨”

The Dow rose 35% from early October to early November. Most of the rebound was concentrated in the week of October 5th-10th, during which President Hoover announced his proposals for a National Credit Corporation and various other provisions to ease the banking crisis. But, like other failed rallies on bullish announcements, this rally failed when the proposals proved too small for the problem Stocks declined sharply, taking the Dow down to a new low of 74 in late December. That brought the leading stock averages down to only one-third of their 1931 highs and one-sixth of their 1929 highs. The only important nations which remained on the gold standard were the US and France.

道琼斯指数从10月初至11月初上涨了35％。大部分反弹集中在10月5日至10日的一周内，胡佛总统宣布了国家信贷公司的建议和各种其他规定，以缓解银行业危机。但是，像其他失败的上涨通知一样，当这些提议证明对于这个问题来说太小时，这个反弹失败了股票大幅下滑，道琼斯指数在12月下旬下滑到新低点74。这使得主要股票平均水平下降到1931年高点的三分之一，是1929年高点的六分之一。依然是黄金标准的唯一重要国家是美国和法国。