1H1930

Optimism Returns 乐观回归

In 1930 it was widely believed that the stock market action had had a 50% correction33 that was over, largely because those sorts of moves are what people remembered.

在1930年，人们普遍认为，股市行动已经有50％的修正33已经结束，主要是因为这些举措是人们记得的。

A number of well-known analysts pointed to value and earnings as reasons why the market was fundamentally sound. Then, like now, people remembered past cyclical downturns, especially those in 1920, 1914 and 1907, and pointed out that 50% corrections occurred in these cases and that the worst was over back in 1920 within 130 days of the top. However, the reasons for the various panics prior to 1929 were different. In some cases, panics were caused by drastic declines in the gold reserves prompting a lack of confidence in government’s ability to meet its debts with sound money, which sent capital fleeing from banks into safe securities and even into hoarding gold. In other cases, panic was created by natural disasters which seriously disrupted the cash flow between various sectors of the United States, sparking bank failures which gave rise to the birth of the Federal Reserve. The optimism wasn’t just confined to market participants. All the Federal Reserve districts predicted an upturn in the economy in the second half of 1930. The commercial banks also forecast an upturn. So, in 1H1930, optimism prevailed.

一些著名的分析师指出，价值和收益是市场基本理想的原因。那么就像现在一样，人们记得过去的周期性下滑，特别是1920年，1914年和1907年的周期性下滑，并指出这些情况发生了50％的纠正，最糟糕的是在1920年以来在130天以内。然而，在1929年之前的各种恐慌的原因是不同的。在某些情况下，恐慌是由于黄金储备急剧下降引起的，导致对政府以合理的资金偿还债务的能力缺乏信心，导致资金从银行转入安全证券甚至囤积黄金。在其他情况下，恐慌是由自然灾害造成的，严重扰乱了美国各部门之间的现金流，引发了银行倒闭，引发了美联储的诞生.乐观主义不仅仅局限于市场参与者。所有美联储预测，1930年下半年经济将有所回升。商业银行也预测会有所回升。所以，在上个世纪三十年代，乐观主义盛行。

The banking system was considered strong at the time. Loans and investments of all member banks expanded steadily through 1930. Their investments in U.S. government securities, municipals, railroad bonds, utility bonds, and foreign bonds all expanded throughout the year, and the new-issue market for common stocks recovered, too.

银行体系在当时被认为是强势的.所有成员银行的贷款和投资在1930年稳步扩大。他们对美国政府证券，市政府，铁路债券，公用事业债券和国外债券的投资全年都在扩大，新的股票市场也普遍恢复

From the depths of the panic in late 1929, the market had begun to recover moving through the first quarter of 1930. The stock market rose strongly in the first four months of 1930. For those who still had money, 1930 held the opportunity for a killing Stocks seemed cheap because they fell faster than the economy, so prices were low in relation to earnings. For example, AT&T was only off 0.1% in earnings, yet the stock price was 25% lower than at the 1929 high. Outside Wall Street, industry looked strong. So in the first quarter of 1930 it was widely believed that stocks were clearly in a 50% correction and nothing more,40 so stocks rose as the Fed eased and the Hoover administration was responsive to the problems. On March 31, Congress passed a stimulus package called the Public Buildings Act and on April 4 approved an appropriation for state road building projects in order to help stimulate the economy.

从1929年末的恐慌深度来看，市场在1930年第一季度开始复苏.在1930年的头四个月，股市大幅上涨。对于那些仍然有钱的人，1930年有机会杀人 股票看起来似乎很便宜，因为它们比经济下滑得更快，所以价格相对于盈利来说是低的。例如，AT＆T的收益只有0.1％，而股价比1929年的高位低了25％.华尔街外，业内人士看好。所以在1930年第一季度，人们普遍认为，股票显然在50％的调整之中，40只股票随着美联储的放缓而上涨，胡佛政府对这些问题做出了回应. 3月31日，国会通过了“公共建筑法”的刺激计划，4月4日批准了国家道路建设项目的拨款，以帮助刺激经济。

Bonds remained steady during January and February despite the Fed’s cut in the discount rate during February, but in March they rallied in response to a second cut to 3.5%. The Fed had cut the discount rate from 6% to 3.5% in just seven months in an attempt to halt the decline in the economy. Interest rates plummeted straight down during the first quarter of 1930.

尽管美联储在二月份的贴现率下降，但在1月和2月期间，债券保持稳定，但3月份则反弹至3.5％。美联储在短短七个月内将贴现率从6％降至3.5％，试图阻止经济下滑。1930年第一季度的利率直线下降

As mentioned, the Fed bought a lot of T-Bills following the crash and until March 1930. Additionally, it is noteworthy that the Directors of the New York Fed and its professional staff wanted to buy a lot of U.S. government bonds to prevent the decline in Federal Reserve credit resulting from the decline in the Federal Reserve’s bill holdings. However, the Federal Reserve Board in Washington opposed the New York bank’s requests, fearing that it would scare foreign investors and weaken the dollar.

如上所述，美联储在坠机之后直到1930年3月才买下了很多T-Bill。另外值得注意的是，纽约联储董事及其专业人员想要买很多美国政府债券，以防止下滑由于美联储的账单持有量下降导致的美联储信贷。不过，华盛顿联邦储备委员会反对纽约银行的要求，担心会吓倒外国投资者并削弱美元.

For all these reasons, optimism ran fairly high during the first quarter of 1930. By April 10th, the Dow had rallied back up to 293.. But poor earnings reports continued. In that sense, the stock market action, economic activity, Fed moves and the administration’s moves were broadly similar to those in 2008 and early 2009. In other words, despite monetary and fiscal stimulation and a general sense that stocks had gotten cheap and the economy was in a normal contraction, economic weakness persisted and dragged stocks lower.

由于所有这些原因，在1930年第一季度，乐观态度相当高. 4月10日，道指回升至293.36。但盈利报告不佳。在这个意义上，股市行动，经济活动，美联储动作和行政措施大体上与2008年和2009年初相似。换句话说，尽管货币和财政刺激以及股票获得便宜和经济的一般意义经济正常收缩，经济疲软持续下滑，股价下跌。