March 1933

Roosevelt Assumes Office and Declares a Banking Moratorium and Other Policies in His First 100 Days 罗斯福假设办公室，并宣布他的头100天的暂停和其他政策

Roosevelt’s Inauguration speech can be found in Appendix 1. 罗斯福的就职演说可以在附录1中找到。

When Roosevelt assumed office on March 4, he declared a banking moratorium enacting the War Powers Act (which he had helped prevent Hoover from using), and he let the dollar slide, The stock market and the banks remained closed.

当罗斯福3月4日上任时，他宣布银行暂停颁布“战争权力法”（他曾帮助防止胡佛使用），并让美元滑落,股市和银行仍然关闭。

The reflation worked! By then, rents and debt service obligations and equity levels had been substantially reduced, so it took less stimulation to raise cash flows above debt payments. From 1929 to 1933, the bankruptcies and other forms of restructuring had reduced the debt by about 21% and financial wealth by about 30%. The deleveraging had also substantially reduced businesses’ operating costs and break even levels, so it took less revenue growth than before to make them profitable. Furthermore, it increased risk premiums of investment assets to very high levels. So, reflation via currency devaluation and increased liquidity raised commodity and export prices and lowered real yields (making cash unattractive). Additionally, the inability to buy gold or move money out of the country made stocks relatively attractive. In the September 25, 1933 edition of Time magazine, the moves of capitalists to protect their wealth in this environment were described as follows: “Methods of hedging against inflation within U.S. frontiers have become a favorite coffee and cognac topic.

通货膨胀工作！到那时，租金和偿债义务和权益水平大幅度下降，所以在提高债务以上的现金流量的情况下，刺激较少。从1929年到1933年，破产和其他形式的重组使债务减少了约21％，金融财富减少了约30％。去杠杆化也大大降低了企业的运营成本，并且平均水平下降，所以收入增长比以前减少，使其盈利。此外，将投资资产的风险溢价提高至非常高的水平。因此，通过货币贬值和流动资金增加引发的通货膨胀提高了商品和出口价格，降低了实际收益（使现金不吸引人）。此外，无法购买黄金或将资金从国外移出，股票相对有吸引力。在1933年的“时代”杂志9月25日，资本家在这种环境中保护财富的举动描述如下：“在美国边境内对冲通货膨胀的方法已经成为最受欢迎的咖啡和干邑话题。

Purchase of industrial stocks is, of course, the most popular hedge, but commodities and land have been creeping up fast since the NRA threatened profits with higher labor costs. Some shrewd businessmen with little capital at stake argue that the best thing is to go as deep into debt as the banks (or friends) will allow; eventually they will pay off with cheaper dollars.” The market action was great. Also, there was significantly increased government spending that helped.

购买工业股当然是最受欢迎的套期保值，但由于NRA以较高的劳动力成本威胁利润，因此商品和土地一直在爬升。一些资本匮​​乏的精明商人认为，最好的事情是像银行（或朋友）允许的一样深入债务;最终他们会用更便宜的钱来偿还“。市场行动是伟大的。此外，政府支出大大增加。

Stock, bond, and commodities prices rose dramatically throughout March following the Bank Holiday. Moody’s daily index of staple commodities actually rose 6% from Friday, March 3rd, to Tuesday, March 7th. The stock market reopened on March 15th. It was initially near the 62 level, but fell back to 56 for the end of the month.

股票，债券和商品价格在银行假期三月份大幅上涨。穆迪日均主要商品指数实际上从3月3日星期五到3月7日星期二上涨了6％。3月15日股市重开。最初接近62级，但在本月底回落至56

The U.S. Treasury offered two new bond issues on March 13th – $400 million due August totaling $1.8 billion. Interestingly, after the dollar devaluation, the gold outflow was reversed, and the United States gained over $325 million in gold in the week ending March 15th. Bank borrowing at the Federal Reserve dropped $180 million in the same week as banks got more cash. During the next two weeks, short-term rates dropped 1%-2% as cash returned, and Fed policy remained easy. Bankers’ acceptance rates fell back to 2%, and call loan rates fell to 3%, as the Federal Reserve cut its buying rate for 90-day acceptances 3 times within five days,

美国财政部3月13日提供两个新的债券问题 - 4亿美元，8月份将达到18亿美元。有意思的是，在美元贬值之后，黄金流出逆转，美国在截至3月15日的一周内上涨了3.25亿美元黄金。随着银行获得更多现金，银联在美联储借款在同一周下跌了1.8亿美元。在接下来的两周内，随着现金回笼，短期利率下跌1％-2％，美联储政策仍然容易。银行家的接受率回落至2％，而贷款利率下降至3％，因为美联储在五天内将收购率下调了90天。

The first batch of charts below shows various measures of economic activity and prices. They all convey the ‘V’ bottom that occurred at the moment when the Fed substantially increased liquidity (which necessitated the dollar’s devaluation against gold and other currencies).

下面的第一批图表显示了经济活动和价格的各种措施。它们都传达了当美联储大幅度增加流动性（这需要美元贬值黄金和其他货币）时发生的“V”底线。

As mentioned before, largely as a result of the dollar becoming overvalued and the credit crisis in the U.S., capital started to shift out of the U.S. and the dollar, forcing the U.S. to choose between tightening and devaluing. The next couple of charts show the Fed’s tightening and associated interest rate changes that occurred in 1928 - 29 and in 1931-33 (until the devaluation).

如前所述，很大程度上由于美元高估和美国的信贷危机，资本开始从美国和美元走出来，迫使美国在紧缩和贬值之间进行选择。接下来的几张图表显示了美联储在1928 - 29年和1931-33年间发生的紧缩和相关利率变动（直到贬值）。

The next batch of charts focuses in on 1932 - 34 – i.e., to squint at this period, we zoomed in on it (showing monthly numbers). The first chart shows the dollar, gold, and the government short rate. Note in the first chart how the government short rate shot up going into the devaluation (because of the currency defense), as money was being withdrawn from banks and from the U.S., and then how a) the bank “holiday”, b) gold exports being disallowed, and c) the devaluation occurred together. When the banks opened their doors, everyone could get their money because it was provided freely. In other words, liquidity was increased to help alleviate the debt crisis. Interest rates continued to fall while stocks, the economy, commodity prices, and inflation all rose from 1933 to 1937, which was the same as during other post-liquidity squeeze periods (e.g. post ERM break-up and post 1980).

下一批图表集中在1932 - 34 - 即在这个时期眯眼，我们放大了（显示每月数字）。第一张图表显示了美元，黄金和政府的短期利率。在第一张图表中注意到，由于货币从银行和美国撤出，政府的短期利率如何升值（由于货币防御），然后如何a）银行“假期”，b）金出口不允许，和c）贬值发生在一起。当银行敞开大门时，每个人都可以自由地获得钱。换句话说，流动性增加，有助于缓解债务危机。利率继续下滑，股票，经济，商品价格和通货膨胀都从1933年上升到1937年，与其他流动性后期挤压期相同（例如，在企业风险暴减后和1980年后）。

The next chart is the same as the previous one, except that it inserts a stock price index (S&P 500 estimate) instead of the interest rate.

下一个图表与前一个图表相同，只不过它插入了股票价格指数（S＆P 500估计），而不是利率。

The next chart is the same except that it shows the budget balance and drops stock prices. As shown, the fiscal stimulation didn’t occur until after the liquidity increase and economic recovery were well underway.

下一张图表是一样的，只是它显示了预算平衡并降低了股价。如图所示，在流动性增长和经济复苏进展顺利之后，财政刺激并没有发生。

Once in power, Roosevelt used the RFC’s powers actively. The array of financial institutions which had been forced to rely on the RFC was staggering up until then, e.g., by December 31, 1932, loans had been authorized to 5,582 banks, 877 savings banks, 101 insurance companies, 85 mortgage loan companies, and 3 credit unions – a total of 6,648 institutions – for a total commitment by the RFC of over $1.25 billion. An additional $333 million had been committed to 62 railroads which were borrowing heavily from the banks. But this was small potatoes in relation to what was to come.

一旦掌权，罗斯福就会积极地使用RFC的权力。一直被迫依赖RFC的金融机构一直令人震惊，例如在1932年12月31日之前，贷款被授权到5,582家银行，877家储蓄银行，101家保险公司，85家抵押贷款公司和 3个信用合作社 - 共有6,648个机构 - 总共承诺RFC超过12.5亿美元。另有三亿三千三百万元用于向银行大量借款的六十二个铁路。但是这是关于未来将要发生的小土豆。

A Glass-Steagall II was passed, and it provided a federal government guarantee on all bank deposits up to $2500, eliminated interest on demand deposits, set margin limits on loans to carry securities, set the limit that one bank could lend to one creditor at 10% of the bank’s capital, and split commercial banking and investment banking functions into two industries.

Glass-Steagall II获得通过，并为所有银行存款提供了最高达2500美元的联邦政府担保，消除了活期存款利息，确定贷款担保的边际限额，设定了一家银行可以借给一名债权人的限额10％的银行资本，将商业银行和投资银行业务分为两个行业

Also, The National Industrial Recovery Act was passed, which was based on many of the ideas of Bernard Baruch, who had become one of Roosevelt’s financial advisors. The act authorized $3.3 billion in public works. Also, the Home Owners Loan Act provided a federal guarantee to refinance mortgages on homes costing less than $20,000. The Agricultural Adjustment Act provided for the withdrawal of farm land under production in return for federal cash payments, 4 1⁄2% refinancing of farm mortgages, and a promise of farm product price supports at a minimum of production cost. The Act also provided numerous measures to promote credit expansion, including presidential authority to devalue the gold content of the dollar by up to 60%, A special Sunday night session of Congress was called to consider the Emergency Banking Act, which authorized the RFC to borrow without limit and to buy preferred stock in closed banks without collateral to help them reopen. The act allowed bank notes to be issued up to 90% of collateral and the Federal Reserve to make loans against any collateral. When banks were reopened, government influence over the financial markets was established, and rescue missions were put in place by the RFC. 233At the end of March, the RFC announced hurriedly prepared regulations governing RFC purchases of preferred stock in closed banks in order to help them reopen , and by the end of June 1933 made preferred stock purchases or loans.

此外，“国家工业复兴法案”也获得通过，该法案是基于罗斯福财务顾问之一的伯纳德·巴鲁赫（Bernard Baruch）所提出的众多理念。该法案授权33亿美元的公共工程。此外，“业主贷款法”提供了一项联邦担保，为低于20,000美元的房屋再融资抵押。“农业调整法”规定了在生产期间撤出农地，以换取联邦现金支付，农村抵押贷款再融资4 1/2％，承诺以最低的生产成本支付农产品价格。该法还提出了许多措施来促进信贷扩张，包括总统权力将美元黄金价格贬值高达60％,召开特别星期日晚上的国会大会考虑紧急银行法案，授权RFC借款无限制，并在没有抵押品的封闭式银行中购买优先股，以帮助他们重新开放。该行为允许银行卡发行抵押品的90％，联邦储备银行对任何抵押品进行贷款。当银行重新开放时，政府对金融市场的影响力已经形成，并由RFC制定了救援任务。233年3月底，RFC公布了匆忙制定关于在封闭式银行购买首选股票的规定的条例，以帮助他们重新开放，到1933年6月底为首选股票购买或贷款,

President Roosevelt announced the end of the gold standard on April 22nd. All those who failed to turn their gold into the Federal Reserve were subject to a maximum fine of $10,000 plus ten years in jail. 235 President Roosevelt issued an executive order, under power given him by Congress in the emergency banking act, ordering all holders of gold to turn it in to the government by May 1 or take the penalty. In May, when interest on U.S. gold bonds was due, which meant that interest to be paid in gold, not paper, Roosevelt broke the “covenant” as payment in paper dollars was mandated,

罗斯福总统宣布4月22日结束黄金标准。所有那些未能将黄金兑换为美联储的人，最高可被罚款一万加元，另加十年监禁。235罗斯福总统根据国会在紧急银行行为中给予的权力下达行政命令，命令所有持有黄金的人在5月1日之前将其交给政府或处罚。5月份，当美国黄金债券的利息到期时，这意味着利息以黄金支付，而不是纸币，罗斯福打破了“公约”，因为以纸币的付款被授权。

In June the new Securities Act of 1933 came into being. It stated that if any “material” fact is misstated or if any “material” fact is omitted, each director is held personally liable for the loss incurred by a buyer of the security. The Securities Act also required registration of all new securities offerings with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), with the exception of local government issues, bank deposits, and commercial paper. The securities industry complained about the Securities Act, principally because it established criminal and civil liability for all participants in an issue for all facets of it for up to two years after the discovery of any untrue statement or omission in the prospectus, or up to ten years after the date of issue,

6月，新的“1933年证券法”诞生了。它表示，如果任何“重大”事实被错误陈述，或者如果忽略了任何“重大”事实，则每位董事对于该证券买方的损失承担个人责任。“证券法”还要求向联邦贸易委员会（FTC）注册所有新的证券，除地方政府问题，银行存款和商业票据外。证券业投诉“证券法”，主要是因为在发现招股说明书中的任何不真实的陈述或遗漏之后两年内，所有参与者对所有参与者构成刑事责任和民事责任，或最多十个发布日期后的几年

Going off the gold standard caused stocks and commodities to soar. During early June, the meaning of the news about gold, the dollar, and foreign exchange controls finally hit home. The President was not going to cut the gold content of the dollar as expected, but he was going to eliminate the gold clause from public and private contracts, So with gold completely out of the picture as a store of wealth at any price in the U.S., the choice was to move money abroad or into something tangible in an environment of the falling value of money, Investors wanted something tangible so they bought stocks which shot prices to the best levels in two years. Similarly, commodities rallied to their highest level since the inflation boom began. This type of market action is consistent with currency devaluation because, when the value of money declines, most things measured in it rise, and devaluations raise incomes because of price increases and improved export sales.

脱离黄金标准导致股市和商品飙升。六月初，有关黄金，美元和外汇管制的消息的意义终于回到了家中。总统不会像预期那样削减美元的黄金含量，而是要从公共和私人合约中消除黄金条款,因此，黄金完全脱离了作为一种财富的商店，美国的选择是将资金转移到国外，或在货币价值下降的环境中形成有形的东西,投资者想要一些有形的东西，所以他们买了股票，在两年内将价格上涨到最高水准。同样，商品涨幅达到通胀高潮开始以来的最高水平。这种市场行为与货币贬值是一致的，因为当货币价值下降时，其中大部分事情都在上涨，贬值由于价格上涨和出口销售增加而提高收入。

Stock multiples exploded as risk premiums fell. For example, stock prices for companies with meaningful earnings averaged 22.7 times 1933 earnings per share, compared with 10 times 1933 earnings in February, before Roosevelt’s inauguration. Stocks at their highest prices went back to 85% of their 1929 low prices,

随着风险溢价下降，股票倍数爆炸式增长。例如，有意义收益的公司的股价平均为1933每股收益的22.7倍，而罗斯福就职前的二月份为1933年的10倍。其最高价格的股票回到1929年低价格的85％

Economic conditions improved dramatically in just a few months, and securities and commodities prices quickly doubled. Business activity rose to 89.5 in July versus a low point of 58.5 in March 1933 and a peak of 116.7 in July 1929. This change was partly due to the end of the banking crisis, partly due to the devaluation of the dollar, which helped to raise prices, and partly due to the confidence Roosevelt inspired.

经济状况在短短几个月内大幅改善，证券和商品价格迅速翻番。商业活动在7月份上升至89.5，而1933年3月为58.5，而1929年7月为高峰，为116.7。这一变化部分是由于银行业危机的结束，部分原因是美元贬值，部分原因是美元贬值，提高价格，部分原因是罗斯福的信心

In July, stock prices had a big correction. The Dow Jones Industrials had fallen 19.96 points in just three days! This raised concerns that the good times were over and the economy was going to plunge again. But this time the opposite was true. Prices traded in a range for several months before moving higher.

七月份股价大幅回调。道琼斯工业在短短三天内下跌了19.96点！令人担忧的是，美好时光已经结束，经济再次下滑。但是这次是相反的。价格在一个范围内交易前几个月上涨。

If gold was a good asset to hold but illegal, were gold stocks a good proxy and therefore a good investment? Initially, they were, but later they were not. The fixed gold price and inflation were bad for gold mining companies as their costs rose – e.g., “He would not let them sell their gold to anyone except the U.S. government and the Government would pay only $20.67. Gold miners were out of luck – their costs mounted but the price of their product remained the same.” However, because Roosevelt wanted to have this mined gold in foreign exchange, Roosevelt decided to allow the gold mines to deliver their product to the Federal Reserve and the Fed to sell the gold to foreign buyers at the world price. We are not sure exactly how this deal worked.

如果黄金是持有但不合法的好资产，黄金股是否代表良好，因此投资良好？最初，他们是，但后来他们没有。黄金采矿公司的固定黄金价格和通货膨胀对成本上涨是不利的，例如“他不会让他们向美国政府出售黄金，政府只支付20.67美元。黄金矿工失去了运气 - 他们的成本仍然保持不变，但是他们的产品价格保持不变。“然而，由于罗斯福希望在这个外汇交易中拥有这样的黄金，所以罗斯福决定允许黄金矿产品交给美联储和美联储以世界价格向国外买家出售黄金。我们不确定这个协议是如何工作的

The devaluation had converted unacceptable deflation into acceptable inflation, There was no statement of an inflation target (which nowadays we would expect), but the results were the same. Inflation went from -10% in 1932, to -5% in 1933 and +3% in 1934, mostly because the dollar fell by 39% against gold and 36% against the pound in 1933 (December to December).

贬值已将不可接受的通货紧缩转变为可接受的通货膨胀,没有通胀目标（现在我们预期的）的声明，但结果是一样的。通货膨胀从1932年的-10％上升到1933年的5％，1934年的+ 3％，主要是因为美元在1933年（12月至12月）下降了39％，而英镑则下降了36％。

Fearing more attacks on their wealth, U.S. citizens exported their dollars by the hundreds of millions to get them some place that they felt was safer. “‘One of our problems,’ droned Viscount Cecil of Chelwood, chairman of Britain’s delegation, ‘is the flood of unwanted money that is pouring into our banks. These funds, deposited in the main by U.S. investors, are subject to withdrawal at 24-hour notice and are of little or no value, though it has not yet been discovered how to get rid of them.’”244 Interestingly, Washington encouraged the flight of the dollar to weaken it. Unlike exports of gold, which were strictly banned for private citizens, the flight from the dollar was quietly encouraged by Washington.

美国公民担心遭受更多的财富袭击，出口数亿美元，让他们感到更安全的地方。“我们的问题之一”是英国代表团团长切尔伍德的塞西尔（Cecil Cecil），是涌入我们银行的不必要的资金。这些以美国投资者为主的资金将以24小时通知的方式进行取消，尽管还没有发现如何摆脱这些资金，但价值很小或没有价值。“244有意思的是，华盛顿鼓励美元的飞行削弱了它。不同于黄金的出口，严格禁止私人公民的使用，华盛顿特区悄然鼓舞了美元的贬值

It turned out that Roosevelt could not declare gold to be illegal to own outright, since that would have been a violation of the Constitution, so he took another approach which the courts ruled permissible. It was ordered that all U.S. citizens file a report to declare how much gold they held. Failure to file the report carried a $10,000 fine or ten years in jail,

事实证明，罗斯福不能宣称黄金是非法的，因为这将违反宪法，所以他采取了另一种方法，法院裁定允许。已命令所有美国公民提交报告，宣布他们持有多少黄金。没有提交报告，在监狱中运送了一万美元或十年罚款

Treasury bonds were also strong. For example, the lowest 1933 prices for the three heavily traded U.S. Treasury issues in the Statistical Appendix were $2 and $6 above their lowest 1932 prices, Below is a table of monthly T-bond, T-bill, Baa bond and commercial paper yields from January 1933 to December 1934.

国债也很强劲。例如，统计附录中三个交易量大的美国国库券的1933年最低价格是比其最低的1932年价格高出2美元和6美元。247以下是每月T型债券，T-bill，Baa债券和商业票据收益表从1933年1月至1934年12月。