3Q1931

The Debt Moratorium and the Run on Sterling... 债务暂停和运行在英镑...

The euphoric “Moratorium Rally” did not last119 because the moratorium obviously didn’t fix the debt problems. On July 20, 1931, a conference was called in London to discuss the European banking crisis. Hoover’s proposal was to call a complete “standstill” among all banks everywhere, preventing anyone from calling upon German or Central European short-term obligations. This didn’t bring comfort to investors who had their wealth stored in them. A group of New York bankers complained to the White House and warned that they would not comply with the standstill, which led Hoover to later say, “If [bankers] did not accept within twenty-four hours (his standstill proposal), I would expose their banking conduct to the American people.” So the bankers reluctantly backed off.

幸福的“暂停拉力赛”并没有持续11 9年，因为暂停执行显然没有解决债务问题。1931年7月20日，伦敦召开了一次会议，讨论欧洲银行业危机。胡佛的建议是在所有各地的银行中称之为“停顿”，阻止任何人要求德国或中欧的短期义务。对于存有财富的投资者来说，这并没有带来安慰。一群纽约银行家向白宫投诉，并警告说他们不会遵守停滞状态，这导致胡佛后来说：“如果[银行家]在二十四小时内不接受（他的停顿计​​划），我会将银行业务暴露给美国人民。“所以银行家们不情愿地退出了

English banks had lots of loans to Germany so when Germany couldn’t pay these banks were in trouble So naturally, investors wanted to take their money and run, so there was a run on England’s reserves. The U.K. banks then, like the U.K. banks now, were in trouble because they owned lots of debt that was in dollars and not being paid back and they were losing cash because depositors and creditors were justifiably scared about what would happen to their money. Then, as now, the Bank of England could only resort to printing money, because credit from elsewhere was not ample. Seeing these problems, on July 24, 1931, the French began sizable withdrawals of gold from London. When the French began to withdraw their gold deposits, other nations followed suit. The Bank of England attempted to stem the run by implementing the typical textbook action of raising interest rates. Of course this didn’t work.

英国银行向德国提供了很多贷款，所以当德国不能支付这些银行时，他们遇到了麻烦自然，投资者希望拿到自己的钱来运行，所以英格兰的储备就是这样。那么英国的银行呢呢就像现在的英国银行一样，很麻烦，因为他们拥有大量的美元债务，没有偿还债务，而且由于存款人和债权人对他们的资金会发生什么事情是有理由害怕的。那么现在呢，英国央行呢只能借钱打印，因为其他地方的信贷不够充足。看到这些问题，1931年7月24日，法国人开始大量从伦敦取款黄金。当法国人开始撤出黄金存款时，其他国家也随之而来。英国央行试图通过实施提高利率的典型教科书行动来阻止这一行动。当然这不行。

Then, on August 1, 1931, the Bank of England asked the U.S. government for a loan from private U.S. banks. Hoover encouraged this action to be taken immediately. But the selling pressure against the pound through the withdrawals of gold by governments and the selling of the pound by private investors forced the Bank of England to request an even bigger loan on August 26. Both loans were made, but even this was far from enough to stem the tide The bank rate was raised from 3 1⁄2% to 4 1⁄2% on July 29 Another big loan from US and French bankers was made on August 28. Note that, through history, the U.K. has always been a preferred country in getting U.S. loans.

然后，在1931年8月1日，英国央行向美国政府要求美国私立银行贷款。胡佛鼓励立即采取行动。但是，通过政府提取黄金和私人投资者出售英镑，对英镑的抛售压力迫使英格兰银行在8月26日要求更大的贷款。这两笔贷款都已经完成，但是这还远远不够阻止潮汐银行利率从7月29日的3 1/2％升至4 1/2％美国和法国银行家的另一笔大额贷款是在8月28日完成的。请注意，通过历史，英国始终如一是获得美国贷款的首选国家。

But these loans didn’t stop investors’ run out of sterling. In fact, they essentially helped to fund them by providing the loans. During July the Bank of England lost nearly one-third of its gold reserves. The Bank of France supported sterling throughout the week of September 7-12 but Dutch banks began to call their funds heavily from London to meet their domestic cash needs, as they were being squeezed also. On September 19 sterling dropped sharply and banks refused to book any speculative short sales of sterling. The London Stock Exchange was in panic Finally, on Sunday, September 20, 1931, the Bank of England abandoned the gold standard and effectively defaulted on its foreign obligations. U.K. bonds plunged.

但是这些贷款并没有阻止投资者用完这些贷款。事实上，他们基本上通过提供贷款来资助他们。七月份英格兰银行亏损近三分之一的黄金储备。法国银行在9月7日至12日的整个星期支持英镑，但荷兰银行开始大量从伦敦拨款，以满足其国内现金需求，因为它们也受到挤压。

Sterling fell 31% over next 3 months. On Monday, the first day of trading after the suspension of gold payments, sterling dropped to a low of $3.71 from the Friday’s level of $4.86. Then, sterling exchange rates fluctuated widely, from as high as $4.20 to as low as $3.50 during September. As with the earlier described stock market action, there were plenty of false rallies with bullish sounding developments which easily could have led people to overlook the big move. Sterling averaged $3.89 in October, $3.72 in November and $3.37 in December.

英镑在未来3个月下跌31％。周一，黄金付款暂停交易的第一天，英镑从周五的4.86美元水平降至3.71美元的最低点。那么，九月份，英镑汇率波动很大，从4.20美元高到3.50美元。与早前描述的股市行动一样，有很多虚惊的涨势，看涨的发展很容易导致人们忽视这一举动。英镑在10月份平均为3.89美元，11月为3.72美元，12月为3.37美元。

The Scandinavian countries devalued by a percentage similar to that of the United Kingdom (31%) as did Portugal, New Zealand, Egypt, and India. Australia devalued by over 40%, Canada by only 17%.

斯堪的纳维亚国家的葡萄牙，新西兰，埃及和印度的贬值水平与英国（31％）相似。澳大利亚贬值40％以上，加拿大只有17％。

Every foreign bond hit a new low for the period in 1931, and every issue but those for Switzerland and France declined 20% or more from its 1931 high price, as investors ran from government bonds fearing that they would either be paid back with devalued paper money or be defaulted on. Bonds of Germany, Austria, and the rest of Eastern Europe, with the exception of Czechoslovakia, sold off drastically. Austria’s bonds dropped to $35, Germany’s to $22, Poland’s to $32, Berlin’s to $14 and Yugoslavia’s to $29.

每一个国外债券在1931年的这个时期都创下新低，每个问题，而瑞士和法国的这个问题，从1931年的高价格下跌了20％甚至更多，因为投资者从政府债券中逃出来，担心他们会以贬值的纸张钱或被拖欠。除捷克斯洛伐克外，德国，奥地利和东欧其他地区的债券大幅下挫。奥地利债券跌至35美元，德国至22美元，波兰至32美元，柏林至14美元，南斯拉夫至29美元

However, England’s credit was not seriously hurt by the event, though the bond initially sold off. That is because the devaluation made it easy for the U.K. to pay off U.K. bonds with the pounds the Bank of England could produce. So on these bonds there was no default risk or a shortage of demand, so the only risk was inflation risk, but that wasn’t a problem because the devaluation did little more than negate deflation. United Kingdom 5 1⁄2% bonds due in 1937 dropped to $92 immediately after the devaluation, having been $104 a week prior, but $90 was the low price for 1931 and the bonds were back over $100 by year end. England had been so hampered by an overvalued currency that the devaluation acted like a tonic. Stocks in the next few months rose up 30%, and by the end of October the Bank of England repaid $100 million of its foreign debts as money flowed back into London banks. This is a classic example of how devaluations in deflationary environments create debt relief and negate deflation rather than rekindle inflation Of course, 30% less in sterling is still 30% so investors anticipating devaluations want to get into something stable like gold.

不过，尽管债券最初出售，英国的信贷并没有受到重大的伤害。那是因为贬值使英国方便了英镑兑英镑兑英镑。因此，这些债券没有违约风险或需求短缺，所以唯一的风险是通货膨胀风险，但这不是一个问题，因为贬值仅仅是否定通货紧缩。联合王国1937年到期的5 1/2％债券在贬值后立即下降至92美元，一周前为104美元，但90美元是1931年的低价，债券在年底前回到100美元。英国人受到高估货币的阻碍，贬值就像补品一样。未来几个月的股票涨幅达30％，截至10月底，由于货币流入伦敦银行，英国央行偿还了1亿美元的外债。这是一个典型的例子，说明通货紧缩环境中的贬值如何创造债务减免和否定通货紧缩，而不是重新启动通货膨胀当然，英镑下跌30％仍然是30％，所以投资者预期贬值将要进入像黄金这样的稳定​​。

Problems Spread to the U.S.

The devaluation of sterling in 1931 sent shock waves through U.S. securities markets that pushed stock prices to new lows. Some other countries’ stock markets simply stopped trading. For example, the Berlin Bourse closed from July 13 to September 3, opened with short selling banned, then closed again. In Amsterdam on September 21, after a sharp decline in prices, all transactions were cancelled and the Exchange closed The New York Stock Exchange remained open, but as in dark November 1929, short selling was forbidden and investors worried, so risk premiums increased.

931年英镑的贬值通过美国证券市场发出冲击波，将股价推升至新低。其他一些国家的股市只是停止交易。例如，柏林证券交易所于7月13日至9月3日关闭，禁止卖空，然后再次关闭。在阿姆斯特丹9月21日，价格大幅下滑后，所有交易均被取消，交易所结束纽约证券交易所仍然开放，但在1929年11月黑暗中，卖空被禁止，投资者担心，风险溢价增加。

The Dow Jones Industrials dropped more sharply than ever before, except for its collapse into November 1929. The industrials fell below the 100 level and closed September on the low of the month The Dow declined a further 38% between September 1st and October 5th As October began, the havoc continued, forcing the industrials down to 86, nearly half the price at the peak of the “moratorium rally” during June 1931. Undoubtedly a good deal of the fear was of confiscation risk as well as price risk.

道琼斯工业指数比以往任何时候都大幅下滑，除了1929年11月的崩盘之外，工业股跌至100点以下，9月份在本月低点收盘。129道琼斯指数在9月1日至10月5日下跌了38％ .130十月份开始，破产继续，迫使工业企业降至86，几乎是1931年6月“暂停反弹”高峰期的一半。毫无疑问，很多恐惧是没收风险以及价格风险。

The sharp decline in stock prices during September of 1931 was also accompanied by a sharp decline in production within many industries. Auto production during September fell 25.6% from August levels Commodities prices declined all year. Investors just wanted safety and that pulled cash and credit out of the hands of consumers and workers.

1931年9月份股价急剧下降的同时伴随着许多行业的生产急剧下降。9月份汽车产量比8月份下降了25.6％商品价格全年下滑。投资者只是想要安全，并将现金和信贷从消费者和工人手里拿走。

Banks needed to sell bonds to raise cash, which contributed to rising yields. Yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds rose from 3 1⁄4% to 4% in the fourth quarter of 1931. Also, there were concerns about U.S. Treasury’s ability to roll bonds coming due over the next two years as a result of its World War I Liberty Bond financing maturing There was a $2 billion budget deficit to finance, plus $10 billion in U.S. maturities in 1932-1933. The U.S. was beginning to look like the U.K. before its devaluation

银行需要出售债券来筹集现金，这有助于提高收益。长期美国国债的收益率在1931年第四季度从3 1/4％上升至4％。此外，还担心美国财政部由于其世界未来两年可能在未来两年内到期的债券的能力第一战争自由债券融资成熟财政赤字达到20亿美元，加上美国在1932-1933年期间的100亿美元。美国在贬值前就开始看起来像英国

After the sterling crisis there were no further refundings in 1931 because of the weakness of the market. The U.S. Treasury 4 1⁄4% bonds due in 1952 dropped from over $114 in June to as low as $102 in October, rose back to $108 in November and fell down again to $100 in December – all of which was too much volatility for successful underwriting.

在纯粹的危机之后，由于市场疲软，1931年没有进一步的退税。美国财政部在1952年到期的4 1/4％债券从6月份的114美元下降至10月份的102美元，至11月份回升至108美元，12月份又回落至100美元，所有这些债券的成功波动幅度过大underwriting.

Despite the fact that the Supreme Court had upheld the legality of shortselling back in 1905, the growing sentiment was clearly seeking a scapegoat, and stock market bears and Wall Street tycoons became the targets. They were widely blamed for causing the numerous bank failures and governmental defaults As law suits mounted and people fought over losses – sometimes in the courts and sometimes in the streets – the Dow Jones Industrials fell severely as capitalists got scared and sought safety.

尽管最高法院在1905年维持了卖空的合法性，但越来越多的情绪显然是寻求替罪羊，股市和华尔街大亨成为目标。他们被广泛归咎于造成许多银行倒闭和政府违约.随着法律诉讼和人民争取损失 - 有时在法庭上，有时在街道上 - 道琼斯工业公司严重下滑，因为资本家害怕并寻求安全。