1934-1938

International Devaluations Follow the Dollar Devaluation 国际贬值遵循美元贬值

Between 1934 and 1936 there was a battle of official devaluations to gain price and trade advantages, Eventually, the French franc’s overvaluation led to domestic pressures to devalue, which caused the French to act in September 1936. As part of that devaluation, the Tripartite Agreement was reached among the United States, Britain and France, which essentially stated that each nation would refrain from competitive exchange depreciation. By then, it became obvious that all countries could just as easily devalue their currencies in response to other devaluations, and a war of competitive devaluation caused turbulence only to get everyone right back where they began, At the end of the day, the result was that all currencies devalued a lot against gold and not much against each other.

在1934年至1936年间，正式贬值，争取获得价格和贸易优势,最终，法国法郎的高估导致国内压力贬值，导致法国人在1936年9月采取行动。作为贬值的一部分，三方美国，英国和法国达成协议，这实质上表明每个国家都不会有竞争性的交易贬值。那时，显而易见的是，所有国家都可以轻易地贬值货币，以应对其他贬值，而竞争性贬值的战争引起了动荡，只能让所有人都回到起始地位最后，结果所有货币对黄金的价值都相当贬值，而不是相互抵制。

It was the contraction from the 1937 high which gave rise to a new term which was “recession.”250 It is worth a look at some of the key stats from 1933-1941.

这是1937年高点的收缩，引起了一个新的“衰退”这个词。250值得一看1933 - 1941年的一些关键统计。

In 1933-37, bond yields fell and credit spreads shrank. The spread between Moody’s AAA corporate bond yield and that of U.S. Treasury issues began to narrow significantly. Corporate yields declined by 27.3% while Treasury yields declined only 17.2%. Stock prices rose, money supply grew and capitalism returned essentially to normal, though at a greatly reduced rate from the 1929 peak. Let’s look at this increase in capital formation.

1933 - 37年期间，债券收益率下降，信贷利差缩水。穆迪AAA公司债券收益率与美国财政部门债券收益率之间的差距开始明显缩小。企业单位下降了27.3％，而国债收益率下降了17.2％。股价上涨，货币供应量增长，资本主义基本恢复正常，但与1929年高点相比大幅下降。我们来看看资本形成的这个增长。

Money supply, as measured by M1, rose some 55% between 1933 and 1937, and total credit expanded by 8%. However, this increase in total debt was due to a 36% increase in government debt and virtually no change in private sector debt. Nominal GDP rose by 48% and the GDP deflator rose by 8% (1.5% per year). Of the $36 billion increase in nominal GDP that occurred from the end of 1932 to the end of 1937, $5 billion was from government spending, $18 billion was from private domestic spending and $ 5 billion was from exports The wholesale price index rose 30.8%, or 5.5% per year.

货币供应量按M1计算，在1933年至1937年间上涨了约55％，信贷总额增长了8％。然而，这笔总债务的增加是由于政府债务增加了36％，私人部门债务几乎没有变化。名义GDP增长48％，国内生产总值平减指数上涨8％（每年1.5％）。在1932年底至1937年底的名义GDP增长360亿美元中，50亿美元来自政府支出，180亿美元来自私人国内支出，50亿美元来自出口批发价格指数上涨30.8 ％，或5.5％。

In 1937, signs of the economy stalling emerged. The stock market had rallied back to the November 1929 low. Commodities, at their peak in 1937, barely managed to rally then declined to new lows. When the severe recession into 1938 began, government expenditures continued to rise in the United States. Total government purchases rose 8.7%, while total GDP declined 5%. Unemployment rose 32.8% between 1937 and 1938, to a rate of 17%. Interest rates began to decline from their 1937 high.

1937年，经济停滞的迹象出现。股市回升至1929年11月低点。商品在1937年达到顶峰，几乎没有上涨，然后下降到新低。当1938年的严重衰退开始时，美国的政府支出继续上升。政府采购总额增长8.7％，而国内生产总值则下降5％。1937年至1938年期间的失业率上升了32.8％，达到17％。利率从1937年的高位开始下降

By 1937, real GDP had finally reached its 1929 levels. It was not until 1954 that the Dow finally reached its 1929 levels. In 1939 the U.K. went to war with Germany, which begins another story.

到1937年，实际GDP终于达到了1929年的水平。直到1954年，道琼斯指数终于达到了1929年的水平。1939年英国与德国进行战争，这又开始了另一个故事。