2H1930
Last updated
Last updated
The economic weakness was global as well as domestic. During this second quarter of 1930 world trade and production declined and unemployment increased. Even with a big fiscal stimulus (about 1% of GDP), and the Fed easing, the world economy weakened. Naturally (i.e., typical of bad downturns) trade tensions and protectionist sentiment emerged. In the U.S., it was widely argued that industries would rebound as long as Europe was forced to stop its dumping policies. While workers and capitalists in industries that had to compete with imports generally liked tariffs, foreigners and those who traded or dealt in world markets didn’t. As the week of June 16 began, the news of what would become known as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act weighed on the stock market46 even though it raised by tariffs by only 20%. Though workers liked tariffs, investors did not. On Monday, June 16th, stocks gapped down. The Dow Jones industrials plummeted to 212.27, closing the week at 215.30. The selling pressure continued the following week as the industrials fell to 207.74, off 14.9% from the close of June 14.
经济疲软是全球化和国内化。在1930年的第二季度，世界贸易和生产下降，失业率上升了45。即使有大的财政刺激措施（约占国内生产总值的1％）和美联储放缓，世界经济减弱。贸易紧张局势和保护主义情绪自然而然（即典型的不景气）。在美国，人们普遍认为，只要欧洲被迫停止倾销政策，工业就会反弹。虽然不得不与进口竞争的行业的工人和资本家一般都喜欢关税，但外国人和在世界市场上交易或处理的人没有。随着6月16日的这个星期开始，即使将关税提高了20％，即将被称为“Smoot-Hawley关税法”的消息也对股市造成了压力。虽然工人喜欢关税，但投资者没有。6月16日星期一，股市下跌。道琼斯工业指数大幅下挫至212.27，周二收于215.30.。由于工业指数从6月14日收盘下跌14.9％，工业指数下跌至207.74点。
The Senate and the House passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff bill on June 17, raising U.S. tariffs by 20% on average, making U.S. tariffs the highest in the world. Several other countries immediately did the same.
参议院和众议院于6月17日通过了“Smoot-Hawley关税法案”，平均将美国关税提高了20％，使美国的关税成为世界上最高的。其他几个国家也是一样
To convey how tariffs changed over time, most importantly how they increased in economic bad times, we show the following interesting chart that we stumbled across. Protectionism is an almost certain consequence of economic bad times.
为了表明电价随时间的变化，最重要的是如何在经济不景气的时候增加关税，我们展示了我们偶然发现的以下有趣的图表。保护主义是经济不景气几乎确定的后果。
It is a mistake to attribute the deleveraging to the Smoot-Hawley tariff,49 as U.S. exports as a percentage of GDP in terms of constant dollars were only 5.28% in 1929 and declined to 4.44% in 1931, so they were rather small and declined a bit more than proportionally with the total economy. The economic contraction which took place worldwide was primarily created by the asset bubble bursting and the debt crisis emerging.
将去杠杆化归因于Smoot-Hawley关税是一个错误，49由于美国出口占GDP的百分比，以恒定的美元计算，在1929年只有5.28％，在1931年下降到4.44％，所以他们相当小而且下降有点超过总经济比例。全球发生的经济萧条主要是资产泡沫破灭和债务危机爆发。
Hoover planned a fiscal 1931 budget surplus, but the likelihood of a surplus diminished as 1930 progressed. In the fiscal year ending June 1931 there was a budget deficit of $463 million because of a $1 billion decline in federal receipts. Increasing budget deficits in periods of economic hardship are virtually inevitable.
胡佛计划了1931财政年度的财政盈余，但随着1930年的进展，剩余的可能性有所减少。截至1931年6月的财政年度，由于联邦收入减少10亿美元，预算赤字为4.63亿美元。在经济困难时期增加预算赤字实际上是不可避免的。
In the second half of 1930, the economy weakened. Then, as now, auto production dropped to about 50% of capacity and the commodities-based industries, such as the oil, mining, farm equipment, and pulp and paper industries, suffered declines. In less than two quarters steel production utilization dropped from 95% to 60% of capacity and commodities prices fell sharply. Housing and mortgage debt collapsed. Classically, these industries decline as the demand for discretionary durables, oil and commodities used in production declines.
1930年下半年，经济疲软.然后，现在汽车产量下降到产能的50％左右，石油，矿山，农机，纸浆，造纸等商品行业遭遇51不到二分之三，钢铁生产利用率从95％下降到能力的60％，商品价格大幅下滑。住房和抵押贷款债务崩溃.经典地说，随着对可再生能源的需求，生产中使用的石油和商品的需求下降，这些行业下滑。
On September 9, 1930, President Hoover stopped all immigration with the exception of tourists, students and professional men and women, and the Labor Department was also instructed to rigidly enforce the laws against illegal aliens, so in 1930 thousands of deportations were made Moves to curtail immigration and to force immigrants to leave the country are also typical of deleveragings.
1930年9月9日，胡佛总统停止了所有移民，除了游客，学生和职业男女，劳工部也被指示严格执法反对非法外侨，所以在1930年，有数千人被驱逐出境。移民限制移民和迫使移民离开该国也是典型的去杠杆化。
At the end of the year the index of prices for 47 farm products was down 29.3% from pre-Crash prices, and publicly traded industrial commodities averaged a price decline of approximately 25%. Hoover declared that speculators who sold commodities short were conspiring against the public welfare Demonizing those who made money betting on the decline is also typical of deleveragings.
年末，47个农产品价格指数比前期价格下跌29.3％，上市工业品平均价格下跌约25％。胡佛宣称，卖掉商品的投机者正在与公共福利进行阴谋妖魔化下跌的赌注也是典型的去杠杆化。
In 1930, earnings declined. According to a survey by Moody’s taken of the first 744 companies to report on their 1930 earnings, there was a 23.2% average decline in corporate earnings in comparison to 1929’s strong earnings. But this average figure is a bit misleading because of differences. Of the total, half were industrial corporations, which posted a decline in earnings of 35.9% for 1930,55 while other industries such as utilities (including the telephone and telegraph companies) were unaffected. In fact, through most of 1930, many industries were not yet doing all that badly as consumer spending did not drop off that sharply at this point. So, the 1930s fall in earnings looked like a shallow recession.
在1930年，收入下降。根据穆迪对前744家公司报告其1930年盈利的调查显示，与1929年强劲的盈利相比，公司盈利平均下降了23.2％。但是由于差异，这个平均数字有点误导。其中，一半为工业企业，1930年为55.9％，其他行业（包括电话公司和电报公司）不受影响。事实上，在1930年的大部分时间里，许多行业还没有那么糟糕，因为消费支出在这一点上并没有大幅下滑。所以，20世纪30年代的收入看起来像是一个浅层的衰退。
The chart below shows department store sales. Notice how they slipped, but did not collapse, in 1930.
下图显示百货公司的销售情况。注意在1930年，他们如何滑倒，但并没有崩溃。
June was the worst month for the stock market in 1930. The Dow Jones Industrial Index dropped almost 23%,56 commodities prices broke their lowest levels since 1914 and the Smoot-Hawley tariff was passed. Lowering money rates and reducing brokers loans had no effect. Then, as now, the Treasury bond market was strong while credit spreads widened.
6月是1930年股市最糟糕的一个月。道琼斯工业指数下跌近23％，56个商品价格自1914年以来突破了最低水平，Smoot-Hawley关税通过。降低资金利率和减少经纪贷款没有任何效果.然后，现在国债市场强劲，信贷利差扩大.
The stock market stabilized for the summer months, though the news was bad – e.g., Miami defaulted, Warner Bros. and Shell Union Oil halted their dividends, and the budget deficit outlook worsened.
虽然这个消息是糟糕的，但股市在稳定下来，尽管消息是糟糕的，例如，迈阿密违约，华纳兄弟公司和壳牌联合油业公司停止了股息，预算赤字前景恶化。
However, the majority of market analysts began to turn bullish during August of 1930 and prices rallied to a peak of 247 on September 10th, though the economy continued to slide and liquidity fears60 were beginning to arise. Once again, market participants over-anticipated a recovery that didn’t materialize, and the disappointing reality of the economy drove prices lower.
然而，大多数市场分析师在1930年8月开始看涨，9月10日价格上涨至247点，虽然经济继续下滑，流动性恐惧60开始出现。再次，市场参与者高估了未能实现的复苏，经济令人失望的现实驱使价格走低。
Railroads then were like autos now, in that they had problems rolling their maturing debts and faced large rollovers ahead (in 1931) and the government considered providing them with special loans because they were considered to be an essential industry that was too important to allow to fail. For this reason, the story of the railroads during the Great Depression is worth noting for those trying to anticipate the fate of the autos over the next few years.
铁路现在就像汽车，因为他们有问题滚动他们的成熟的债务，并面临大面积的转机（在1931年），政府考虑提供特别贷款，因为它们被认为是一个重要的行业，这是太重要，不允许失败。因此，大萧条时期铁路的故事值得注意，希望能够预测未来几年汽车的命运。
Then, like in 2008, despite a severe decline in government interest rates, corporate bonds eventually collapsed61 as public confidence gave way and mortgage spreads to treasuries increased. Specifically, interest rates on first mortgages stayed at 5.5% to 6% while seconds yielded at least 7%, because despite the decline in government rates, banks were still maintaining high rates on mortgages62 because of the increased credit risks and the banks fears of illiquidity. Municipal bonds and municipal governments did well in 1930 until credit fears developed in the last quarter In October of 1930, the stock market broke its November 1929 lows
那么像2008年一样，尽管政府利率大幅下滑，但随着公众信心的下降，抵押贷款利差的增加，企业债券最终下滑了61。具体而言，第一抵押贷款利率维持在5.5％至6％之间，而秒数至少达到7％，因为尽管政府利率下降，但由于信贷风险增加以及银行对流动性不足的担忧，银行仍然按比例维持高利率62 。市政债券和市政府在1930年做得很好，直到上个季度发生信贷恐惧为止
During the Crash and in 1930, there was a lot of talk about the strength of the banking system and the strength of the banks was expected to limit the duration of the contraction. Bank earnings generally declined only 25%-30% in 1930, and four of the top ten banks paid higher dividends in 1930. So, banks appeared strong through most of 1930.
在崩溃期间，在1930年，有很多关于银行体系实力的谈话，银行的实力有望限制收缩的持续时间。1930年银行业务收入普遍下降25％-30％，十大银行中有四家银行在1930年支付较高的股息。因此，银行在1930年的大部分时间里显得强劲。
However, some banks began to look vulnerable when the economy and stock market weakened late in 1930. The decline in the stock market in the second half of 1930 made some banks especially vulnerable because they owned stocks Also, some important banks had also engaged in unsound speculation and made unsound loans. Other banks were affected by the impact of declining commodities prices on their customers’ credit and by the worsening economic conditions, particularly those banks that had large real estate loans. Runs eventually occurred in numerous cities during 1930. However, the majority of early bank failures were confined to banks in the Midwest and country banks that had a lot of money in real estate loans.
然而，一些银行在1930年底经济衰退的时候，一些银行开始疲软。股票市场在1930年下半年的下滑使得一些银行因为拥有股票而特别脆弱另外，一些重要的银行也从事在不合理的投机和不正当的贷款。其他银行受到商品价格下跌对客户信贷和经济状况恶化的影响，特别是那些拥有大量房地产贷款的银行的影响。运行最终在1930年发生在许多城市。然而，大多数早期银行倒闭局限于中西部的银行和国家银行，房地产贷款有很多钱。
Many bankers had liquidity problems because they held many illiquid foreign bonds, real estate loans, railroad loans, and investment loans, so they sought safety and liquidity in the short-term market then, in much the same was as they did in 2008 and early 2009. During the first six months of 1930, 471 banks failed, though none of the big ones.
许多银行家因流动性不高的外国债券，房地产贷款，铁路贷款和投资贷款而流动性问题，因此在短期市场上寻求安全和流动性，与2008年和早期相似在1930年的前六个月，471家银行失败，尽管没有一家大银行。
Then, like now, the velocity of money fell as credit contracted and people moved to holding cash. The hoarding of gold coins began to increase by late 1929 as the government stopped issuing new gold coinage.
那么，像现在一样，货币的速度因信用合同而下降，人们转而持有现金。随着政府停止发行新的金币，囤积金币开始增加
Through all of 1930, 1,350 banks suspended operations, compared with 659 banks in 1929,69 but bank failures weren’t a big worry Also, Wall St. brokerage firms started failing Financial companies which had employed high leverage in 1929 paid a heavy price for it in 1930 Goldman Sachs Trading wrote down its portfolio value $165 million at the end of 1930 in order to bring it to market value. Then, as now, almost half the write-offs were on securities for which no adequate public market existed Also, investment funds at the Wall Street firms began to collapse as managers lost most of their clients’ money. For example, Goldman Sachs’ two leading funds both fell by about 90%.
在1930年的所有时期，1,350家银行暂停营业，而1929年的银行则为659笔，但银行倒闭并不是一个大问题此外，华尔街经纪公司开始失败在1929年支付了高杠杆的金融公司支付在1930年，它的价格很高高盛贸易公司在1930年底将其投资组合价值下降到1亿美元，以达到市场价值。那么现在，现在几乎一半的注销都是在没有足够的公共市场存在的证券上另外，华尔街的投资基金开始崩溃，因为经理们失去了大部分客户的钱。例如，高盛两大主要基金都下跌了约90％。
It wasn’t until December 1930 that bank failures became a big deal. Until then, the majority of bank failures had been in the Midwest. But in December, the Bankers Trust Co. in Philadelphia failed, which was followed by the failure of the Bank of United States Manufacturers Trust Company also experienced runs at some branches and needed help from the Clearing House Association. Bank stocks plunged. The reputations of U.S. banks suffered abroad, where the Bank of United States was thought to be more important than it actually was because of its name
直到1930年12月，银行倒闭成了一个大问题。在此之前，绝大多数银行倒闭都在中西部地区。但是12月份，费城银行信托有限公司失败，其次是美国银行的失败制造商信托公司也经历了一些分支机构的运营，需要结算所协会的帮助。银行股暴跌。美国银行的声誉受到国外的影响，美国银行被认为比实际上更重要，因为它的名字
Back then, there was no active lender-of-last-resort role at the Federal Reserve to deal with smaller regional banks, so the Bank of United States got no lender-of-last-resort loans. The Federal Reserve did what its role proscribed when bank suspensions accelerated in November and December 1930, i.e., it increased its open market purchases aggressively, so that its holdings of T-bills doubled by December 31st Back then, the role of the Federal Reserve was to control money supply and not to determine who got money and who didn’t.
当时，美联储没有积极的最后贷款人处理较小的区域银行，所以美国银行没有贷款最后贷款。美联储在1930年11月和12月银行暂停加速时所采取的禁止行动，即大幅增加了公开市场采购，使其持有的T-bill在12月31日前翻了一番当时，联邦储备是控制货币供应，而不是确定谁有钱，谁没有。
Political shifts follow economic shifts. This time was no different. The Democrats swept Congress in the November mid-term elections. Still, at the end of 1930, a majority of those in finance and business predicted that there would be an economic recovery in 1931
政治转变遵循经济转型。这个时间没有什么不同。11月中旬选举中，民主党人席卷国会。然而，到了1930年底，大多数财务和商业人士预测，1931年将有经济复苏
The foreign debt problem had also become a big drag on the global economy, which hurt the U.S. economy. Then, as now, these debts were heavily denominated in U.S. dollars. Then, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board privately advised Hoover to cut war debts by 70% and reparations by 40% to improve international trade and financial conditions, but this was rejected because it was felt that the U.S. needed the money All the countries of Western Europe and the United Kingdom had dollar-denominated bond issues after the war and, in varying degrees, were facing problems coming up with dollars, which then, as this time around, strengthened the dollar.
外债问题也成为影响美国经济的全球经济的大拖累。那么现在这些债务是以美元计价的。然后，联邦储备委员会主席私下建议胡佛将战争债务削减70％，赔偿40％，以改善国际贸易和金融状况，但被拒绝，因为认为美国需要这笔钱。西欧和英国的国家在战后就有美元计价的债券问题，而且在不同程度上面临着美元走高的问题，随着时间的推移，美元升值。
In the boom years, emerging market debt had become popular as it seemed to offer higher interest rates with not much risk. Issues of South American governments had been especially popular. For example, Argentine bonds were rated Aa by Moody’s, which also gave an A bond rating to Buenos Aires, Chile, Cuba, Peru, Rio Grande do Sul, and Uruguay. Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, and Rio de Janeiro were rated Baa, which still implied investment quality. Rates on these bonds were 1%-2% over comparably rated domestic corporate issues in 1928-1929 when the carry trade was popular But in 1930, U.S. investors didn’t want to roll over maturing foreign debt Foreign governments with maturing issues had to resort to short-term borrowing. Then, as now, these countries didn’t get loans from the U.S. government. Later in the deleveraging, many of these countries defaulted on their U.S. bond issues.
在繁荣时期，新兴市场债务已经变得流行起来，因为它似乎提供了较高的利率，并没有太多的风险。南美政府的问题尤为受欢迎。例如，阿根廷债券被穆迪评级为Aa，也为布宜诺斯艾利斯，智利，古巴，秘鲁，南里奥格兰德苏尔和乌拉圭提供了A债券评级。玻利维亚，巴西，哥伦比亚和里约热内卢被评为Baa，仍然意味着投资质量。这些债券的利率在1928 - 1929年期间的国内公司股票比例相当于1％-2％，当时套利交易受欢迎但是在1930年，美国投资者并不想滚动日渐成熟的外债成熟的外国政府问题不得不诉诸于短期借款。那么现在这些国家没有从美国政府那里获得贷款。后来在去杠杆化，其中许多国家拖欠了他们的美国债券问题。
France and Great Britain were heavily in debt to the United States, but the greatest source of instability was Germany, which had built up massive international short-term debts that it could not service or roll. Germany had a huge reparations burden, it lacked foreign exchange reserves, the savings of individuals had been wiped out by hyperinflation in the early 1920s, and the rest of Europe feared a rebirth of German militarism so it tried to hold Germany back economically. Since hyperinflation and reparations payments eliminated domestic savings, both German industry and government were forced to borrow abroad As it was short of cash, Germany’s central bank, the Reichsbank, raised its rate from 4% to 5% in October in order to raise short-term funds By this time Hitler had emerged on the scene and created a problem for the governing Social Democrats, thus destabilizing their ability to govern, making investors more wary about lending to Germany.
法国和英国在很大程度上负债给美国，但最不稳定的来源是德国，德国已经建立了大量的国际短期债务，不能服务于国际货币体系。德国有巨大的赔偿负担，缺乏外汇储备，20世纪20年代初，通过恶性通货膨胀消除个人储蓄，欧洲其他国家担心德国军国主义重生，所以试图将德国置于经济上。由于恶性通货膨胀和赔偿支付消除了国内储蓄，德国工业和政府都被迫借入国外由于缺乏现金，德国中央银行瑞典银行10月份将其利率从4％提高到5％，以提高短期资金82此时，希特勒出现在现场，为管理社会民主党人创造了一个问题，从而破坏了其治理能力的稳定，使投资者对贷款给德国更为谨慎。
Similarly, economic problems in South America caused political and social problems there. In September there was a revolt in Chile and a revolution in Argentina and in October a rebel coup in Brazil. Naturally, this turbulence scared investors both foreign and domestic, and this scared capital away, worsening their problems!
同样，南美洲的经济问题也引发了政治和社会问题。9月份，智利发生了反抗，阿根廷发生革命，10月份又在巴西发动反叛政变.自然而然，这种动荡对外国和国内的投资者都感到害怕，这种恐惧的资本越来越恶化了！
During such times of great stress, political and social polarization emerges as various strongly held opposing views, especially of “the have-nots” (workers) and “the haves” (investors), and this makes it difficult for leaders to govern. Such periods are great test of whether a nation’s system of checks and balances really works or paralyzes decision making.
在这种压力大的时期，政治和社会两极分化，出现了各种强烈反对的观点，特别是“无所事事”（工人）和“有钱人”（投资者），这使得领导人难以治理。这样的时期是一个国家制衡制度是否真的有效还是瘫痪决策的重大考验。