1Q1931

Still, in January 1931, most people confidently expected an imminent recovery. For example, at their January 1931 annual meetings, virtually all bank chairmen predicted a business recovery during 1931. So did politicians, financiers, businessmen, and even Europeans, who had been the most skeptical of similar predictions in early 1930. This is because the problems still seemed manageable, so there was a presumption that there would be a return to this norm.

然而，在1931年1月，大多数人自信地预期将要复苏。例如，在1931年1月的年度会议上，几乎所有的银行主席都预测了1931年的业务复苏。政治家，金融家，商人甚至欧洲人也是这样，他们在1930年初就是最怀疑类似的预测。这是因为问题仍然是可以控制的，所以有一个假设是会恢复这个规范。

February 1931 was a month of mixed economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied sharply during February as confidence returned. For three weeks prior to Washington’s Birthday, stocks rose and there were stories of big bears caught short and big M&A deals rumored. International Telephone & Telegraph gained 100% from its January low and there were rumors that it would again attempt to buy Radio Corp’s communication business. These developments worried investors with cash and shorts that that they’d miss out on the return to normalcy, so they bought, causing a buying panic. Optimism was pervasive and broadly expressed. The Dow Jones Industrials rallied 20% from the December low and selected stocks doubled,85 so there was no doubt that the economy was on the road to recovery.

1931年二月是一个混合经济数据的月份。由于信心回升，道琼斯工业平均指数在二月份大幅上涨。在华盛顿诞辰三周之前，股市上涨，有大熊的故事陷入短暂的大并购交易传闻。国际电话电报从1月份的低点上涨了100％，有传言说再次尝试购买无线电公司的通信业务。这些发展使投资者担心现金和短缺，他们会错过正常回报，所以他们买入，导致购买恐慌。乐观主义普遍而广泛。道琼斯工业股从十二月份的低位上涨了20％，所选股票翻了一番，85，所以毫无疑问，经济正在复苏的道路上。

On stocks, the head of Chase bank commented: “I do not know whether we shall see lower prices in the stock market or not...There are many securities, both stocks and bonds, which are now selling for less than they will be worth in normal times and at prices which should prove attractive to the investor.” His conclusion and forecast were: “I think that we are approximately at the worst of the Depression and that the next important move will be upward...I expect conditions at the end of 1931 to be a good deal better than they are at the end of 1930.”86 In January, even Paul Moritz Warburg, who had become somewhat of a respected soothsayer for identifying the “speculative orgy” just prior to the collapse and who was a well-known banker and a director of the Manhattan Co., said “from the banker’s point of view, I do not hesitate to say that within a few years hence the level at which some of our securities sell today will look...incomprehensibly low...even though one might anticipate a year or two of reduced dividends.”87

大臣银行股股票评论：“我不知道我们是否会看到股票市场的价格下降...有很多证券，股票和债券，现在卖的不到在正常时间和价格上应该是对投资者有吸引力的价值。“他的结论和预测是：”我认为我们大概处于大萧条的最糟糕的状态，下一个重要的举措将会向上。在1931年年底，他们比1930年年底好得多。“86一月份，甚至保罗·莫里茨·沃伯格（Paul Moritz Warburg），在瓦解之前，他已经成为一个受人尊敬的soothsayer来确定”投机狂欢“谁是一个着名的银行家和曼哈顿公司的董事，他说：“从银行家的角度来看，我毫不犹豫地说，在几年之内，我们今天出售的一些证券的水平将会看起来...难以理解的低...即使有可能预计一年或两年减少红利。“87

Similarly, the President of U.S. Steel, James Augustine Farrell, was quoted in Time magazine saying that stocks had reached “the low from which an uptrend was now in motion” and the chairman of both RCA and General Electric, Owen D. Young, stated before the American Bankers Association meeting that in his opinion improvement was at hand. Numerous leaders within industry echoed these opinions. Also, in February 1931 the Federal Reserve Board declared that the banking system was much stronger than 18 months earlier. At the same time, state and local governments were generally considered strong and creditworthy.

同样，美国钢铁公司总裁詹姆斯·奥古斯丁·法雷尔（James Augustine Farrell）在“时代”杂志上引用了股票已经达到“上涨趋势的低点”，RCA和通用电气董事长欧文D.杨表示在美国银行家协会会议之前，他认为改善是在手。行业内的众多领导人回应了这些意见。此外，在1931年2月，联邦储备委员会宣布，银行体系比18个月前强劲。同时，国家和地方政府普遍认为是强大和有信誉的。

Investors shared this view, and the Dow Jones Industrials rallied into February, exceeding the January high as well as the highs that had been established during both November and December of 1930 The chart below shows the rally and what subsequently happened. Once again, sentiment affected stock prices and the economy, and knowledgeable people confidently gave misleading advice that sucked people with cash into the market and shorts out of the market, hurting both. I point this out to show how misleading a consensus of experts and market movements can be

投资者分享了这一观点，道琼斯工业股上涨至二月份，超过一月份高点以及1930年11月和12月建立的高点下图显示了反弹和随后发生的情况。再一次，情绪影响股价和经济，知识渊博的人士自信地给人们带来了误导性的意见，把现金吸引到市场上，冲破市场，损害了两者。我指出，这显示出专家和市场运动的共识有多么误导

Along with the rally in stocks, railroad bonds rallied in February, exceeding the highs of December 1930 and January 1931. Corporate and municipal bond defaults started to pick up in 1931 Real estate backed bonds were one of the worst investments, second only to foreign bonds Interestingly, bond defaults caused more losses than stock market declines in the Depression. In fact, supposedly losses on investments in foreign bonds were greater than losses on investments in stocks Stocks, at least, could be sold at a price quoted on the exchange. Bond issues backed by real estate simply went into default and were illiquid.

随着股市反弹，铁路债券在二月份上涨，超过了1930年12月和1931年1月的高位。公司和市政债券违约在1931年开始回升房地产支持债券是最差的投资之一，仅次于国外债券有趣的是，债券违约造成了大萧条时期股市下跌的损失。事实上，据称外国债券投资损失大于投资股票的损失至少可以以交易所引用的价格出售股票。房地产支持的债券问题只是违约，流动性不足。

Wages and Consumer Finance

At this time, there were greatly divergent views about how to solve the Depression. For example, some people thought that wages should be pushed up and others thought they should fall. For example, the president of the Chase National Bank, which was the largest bank in the U.S. at the time, Albert Wiggins, said “it is not true that high wages make prosperity. Instead, prosperity makes high wages. Many industries may reasonably ask labor to accept a reduction of wages designed to reduce costs and to increase both employment and the buying power of labor.”93 Others argued that by lowering wages it would reduce the cost of production, thereby reducing retail prices and stimulating purchases, which would speed recovery.

在这个时候，关于如何解决大萧条的看法有很大的不同。例如有人认为应该把工资推高，别人以为应该下跌。例如，当时美国最大银行的大通国家银行行长阿尔伯特·维金斯（Albert Wiggins）说：“高工资繁荣是不正确的。相反，繁荣就是高薪。许多行业可能会合理地要求劳工接受降低成本降低工资，增加就业和劳动力购买力。“93其他人认为，通过降低工资会降低生产成本，从而降低零售价格并刺激购买，这将加速恢复。

Naturally, price wars were taking place in many industries as businesses with high fixed capacity wanted to get any incremental contributions possible, even though these revenues were at a loss.

自然地，许多行业的价格战是在发生的，因为固定能力高的企业想要获得任何增量的成果，尽管这些收入是亏损的。

Despite interest rates declining, banks did not lend much to individuals because of their perceived credit and liquidity risks. Credit spreads blew out. The small individual seeking to borrow money was typically forced to pay over 40% a year! A common practice was that a wage earner’s pay check was postdated. This gave rise to the often termed “salary-purchasers.” These people offered $50 for a $55 paycheck, taking advantage of the person who needed the cash immediately. Pawnbrokers were reported to be lending money at the highest possible legal rate and then forcing the client to pay $10 for $1 worth of merchandise to get around the laws. The “usurers” would collect $10 a month interest on a $50 loan for years at times. Below is a report showing average lending rates from various types of lenders to small individuals.

尽管利率下降，但由于信贷风险和流动性风险，银行对个人贷款并不多。信用利差消失。寻求借款的小个子通常被迫每年支付超过40％！一个常见的做法是工资支付者的工资支票过时了。这导致了经常被称为“薪金买家”。这些人以55美元的薪水提供了50美元，利用了立即需要现金的人。典当经纪人据报以最高可能的合法利率贷款，然后迫使客户支付10美元的价值1美元的商品来绕过法律。有时候，“使用者”将每月收取50美元贷款的10美元利息。以下是一份报告，显示各类贷款人对小个人的平均贷款利率

Stocks slipped at the end of the first quarter as earnings disappointed (see table below). In March, the Dow Jones Industrials fell, closing March virtually on the low near the 171 level. The long bonds rallied, not by much, though they went to a new high for the year during March

股市在第一季度末下滑，收益令人失望（见下表）。3月份，道琼斯工业股下跌，收于3月份，接近171个水平。长期债券涨幅不大，尽管在三月份的这一年里，他们曾经创下新高