1933

Upon Roosevelt’s winning the election, rumors began to spread that a devaluation was in the works. The Democratic party had long been a symbol of “soft money,” going back to the 1890s when they were known as the “Silver Democrats” with William Jennings Bryan’s famous speech of “Thou shalt not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold.” And Roosevelt’s campaign rhetoric encouraged these rumors.

在罗斯福赢得选举之后，谣言开始传播，贬值在作品中。民主党长期以来一直是“软钱”的象征，回到19世纪90年代，当时他们被称为“银民主人士”，与威廉·詹宁斯·布莱恩的着名演讲“你不要把十字架钉在十字架上的金子十字架”。罗斯福的运动修辞鼓励这些传言

A devaluation would help workers by raising wages, but it would hurt debtholders as the value of their securities was tied to the value of money. So, investors fled, and in January, there were big gold withdrawals. Foreign banks began to redeem their dollars for gold, further increasing the drain upon reserves, and the withdrawal of gold coin from the Treasury was approaching a crisis level as private investors also sought to convert their bonds into gold.

贬值将通过提高工资来帮助工人，但由于其证券的价值与货币价值相关，因此债务人将受到损害。所以，投资者逃跑了，而在一月​​份，黄金大提取了。外资银行开始赎回美元黄金，进一步增加储备的流失，金库从金库撤出正接近危机水平，私人投资者也试图将其债券转为黄金.

On the 18th of February, a Senator who had publicly accepted the post of Secretary of the Treasury under Roosevelt announced that he had refused the post because upon meeting with Mr. Roosevelt, the President-elect would not provide the Senator with an assurance that the gold standard would be maintained. The New York Times wrote “...at no time in the recent economic history of America has there been greater need than at present for a flat declaration of a monetary policy by the new American government. A declaration by Mr. Roosevelt declaring firm resolution to maintain a sound currency would have an extremely reassuring effect.” He did not reply with these assurances, which raised concerns

二月十八日，一名公开接受罗斯福财政部长职务的参议员宣布他拒绝了这个职位，因为在与罗斯福先生会面后，当选总统不会向参议员提供保证，将维持黄金标准。“纽约时报”写道：“在美国最近的经济史中，任何时候都没有比现在新的美国政府公布货币政策的更大的需求。罗斯福宣布坚定决心维持稳健货币的声明将产生非常令人放心的效果。“他没有回答这些保证，这引起了人们的关注。

Between November 1932 and March 1933, there was clearly an anticipation of possible reflationary policies of the President-elect which caused a flight from the dollar, which sparked numerous Europeans to dump their holdings, and which in turn forced the Dow Jones Industrials down from 62 to 50 moving into February 1933. Investor hoarding of gold and foreign investors leaving the U.S. hastened the banking liquidity crisis.

在1932年11月至1933年3月期间，显然预计当选总统可能通过汇率政策，导致美元贬值，引发了许多欧洲人倾销其持有，从而迫使道琼斯工业股从62下跌至50日移动到1933年2月。投资者囤积黄金和外国投资者离开美国赶紧银行流动性危机。

In reaction to this flight from the dollar and from the U.S., Hoover wanted capital export controls Foreign exchange controls are quite normal in situations like this and very scary for investors. To justify his ability to do this, Hoover attempted to use the War Powers, but the Democrats blocked this move,which is interesting as typically left of center governments are in favor of capital controls and right of center governments are against them. The panic out of the U.S. accelerated from a slow pace to a stampede. Specifically, the gold stock declined slowly at first, from $4,279 million on January 18, 1933, to $4,224 million on February 15, 1933. It dropped a further $168 million by March 1st, another $100 million by March 3rd, and reports circulated that over $700 million would be presented for gold on March 4th, the day of Roosevelt’s inauguration.

为了对美元和美国的这次航班做出反应，胡佛希望通过出口管制外汇管制在这样的情况下是非常正常的，对投资者来说是非常可怕的。为了证明他的能力，Hoover试图利用战争力量，但民主党人阻止了这一举动，222这是有趣的，中央政府一般都是赞成资本管制，中央政府的权利是对他们的。美国的恐慌从缓慢的步伐加速到踩踏。具体来说，金价从一九三三年一月十八日的42.79亿美元开始缓慢下降，到一九三三年二月十五日为止的四亿二千四百万美元，到三月一号再降1亿6千万美元，3月3日再下降1亿美元。3月4日，罗斯福就职典礼当天将提供7亿美元的黄金

From the November low of $3.15 when Roosevelt was elected, the pound jumped to $3.43 by February just before this inauguration for an 11.25% gain. The smart money in the United States was buying foreign exchange while the masses were hoarding gold in ever increasing quantities. In the end, those who had bought the foreign exchange profited, while those who hoarded gold in the U.S. found themselves trapped, i.e. if they did not surrender their gold hoardings at the old value of $20 prior to Roosevelt’s devaluation in January 1934224 they were subject to criminal prosecution. It wasn’t easy being an investor or a capitalist in those days. Business activity hit a low point in March 1933. In 1933, the Gross National Product reached its lowest point in the Depression at $55.6 billion, or 46% below 1929. In constant dollars this was 31 1⁄2% below 1929.

从罗斯福当选的11月份的3.15美元的低点来看，英镑在今年2月份之前就跃升至3.43美元，涨幅为11.25％。美国的聪明人正在购买外汇，而群众却囤积黄金。最后，买进外汇的人受益匪浅，而在美国囤积黄金的人发现自己陷入困境，即如果他们在1934年1月罗斯福贬值之前没有以20美元的价格交出旧的价值，刑事起诉。那时候投资者或资本家并不容易。商业活动在1933年3月达到低点.1933年，国民生产总值达到556亿美元，低于1929年的46％，低于1929年的31 1/2％。

When the banks closed in many states during February and March, many businesses closed completely. The resulting low level of business activity in February and March 1933 was shocking.

二月和三月间，许多国家的银行关闭，许多企业完全关闭。1933年二月和三月的业务活动低水平令人震惊