Canada's Future Growth
Last updated
Last updated
Based on our economic health index, we project that Canada's real growth rate over the next 10 years will be in the vicinity of 1.1% to 1.4%. This growth rate is somewhat below the global average, ranked 13 out of 20 major economies, and 5 out of 11 developed countries. As a reminder, this estimate (and this writing) is based on our computer-generated analysis of the statistics detailed in Part 1, and doesn't account for exogenous shocks (like commodity or political shocks, or wars). In Canada's case, our growth estimate comes from combining our expectation of a 0.9% growth rate per worker, which is somewhat below the global average, and a labor force growth rate of 0.2%, which is roughly in line with other major economies. The growth in output per worker is driven significantly by productivity and indebtedness. Over the long-term productivity matters most, while swings in indebtedness tend to be an important driver in the short-term. Given we are looking at a 10 year time frame, we weigh our productivity measures about two thirds and our indebtedness measure about one third (though there is no precision here). Over the next 10 years, we expect Canada's productivity to be somewhat worse than most major countries (implying a growth rate of 0.6% on its own), and indebtedness conditions to be about average compared to other countries (implying a growth rate of 2.4% on its own). As shown below, Canada's biggest relative strengths are its rule of law and its level of corruption relative to income, and its biggest relative problems are how hard its people work and the value its workers provide relative to education levels. The various gauges and weights are shown below. The individual indicators that are behind them are explained in Part 1 of this section, and listed in the appendix of this section. Please review this table to understand our comments.
根据我们的经济健康指数，我们预计未来十年的加拿大实际增长率将在1.1％至1.4％附近。这一增长速度略低于全球平均水平，在20个主要经济体中排名第13，11个发达国家中有5个。作为提醒，这个估计（和这篇文章）是基于我们对第1部分详细统计的计算机分析，并不考虑外部冲击（如商品或政治冲击或战争）。在加拿大的情况下，我们的增长预期来自将我们对每个工人的0.9％增长率的预期（其略低于全球平均水平）和0.2％的劳动力增长率，这与其他主要经济体大致相符。每个工人的产出增长主要受生产力和负债的驱动。在长期生产力方面，大多数情况下，负债波动往往是短期的重要驱动力。鉴于我们正在研究10年的时间范围，我们将生产力措施称为三分之二，而我们的债务衡量约三分之一（尽管这里没有精确度）。在接下来的十年中，我们预计加拿大的生产力会比大多数主要国家的生产力稍差一些（意味着自己的增长率为0.6％），债务状况与其他国家相比平均水平（意味着增长率为2.4％在其自己的）。如下图所示，加拿大最大的相对优势是法治及其相对于收入的腐败程度，其最大的相对问题是人民的工作情况和工作人员对教育水平的影响。各种规格和重量如下所示。其背后的各个指标在本节的第1部分进行了说明，并在本节的附录中列出。请查看此表以了解我们的意见。
A country's productivity and competitiveness is mostly a function of the relative value it offers, especially for its labor. As shorthand for this, we refer to our gauge of this relative value as "what you pay versus what you get"; it reflects a) the cost and value of employees and b) the levels of investment. Countries that have well-educated workers that are relatively inexpensive and that have higher investment rates grow faster than those that don't.
一个国家的生产率和竞争力主要是其所提供的相对价值，特别是劳动力的一个功能。作为这方面的简写，我们将这个相对价值的衡量指标称为“你所付出的与你所得到的”;它反映了a）员工的成本和价值，以及b）投资水平。拥有受过良好教育的工人比较便宜，投资率高的国家比没有受过良好教育的工人要快。
Canada offers somewhat worse than average value, ranked 16 among the countries we measure. Its workers are somewhat expensive, even taking into consideration Canada's somewhat high levels of education and very good quality of education. Further, people in Canada don't work hard relative to the cost of their labor - the average male of working age works 24 hours per week (13 out of 20 countries), and the demographics of the workforce are very unfavorable. Levels of saving and investing are somewhat low given Canada's high per capita income levels, with investment at about 18% of GDP (7 out of 20 countries).
加拿大比平均值差一些，在我们衡量的国家中排名第16。其工人有些昂贵，即使考虑到加拿大的教育程度较高，教育质量也很好。此外，加拿大人不会因劳动成本而努力工作 - 平均每个工作年龄的男性每周工作24小时（20个国家中有13个），而且劳动力人口数量非常不利。由于加拿大人均收入水平较高，储蓄和投资水平有所降低，投资额约占国内生产总值的18％（20个国家中有7个）。
Just looking solely at the relative value of a country's workers misses the role that the culture plays in determining how much a country will grow. As I've discussed, culture influences the decisions people make about factors like savings rates or how many hours they work each week, which we measure in the previously shown indicators, but culture can also influence work attitudes, levels of efficiency, reliability and other such influences on whether countries underperform or outperform.
仅仅看一个国家工人的相对价值，就忽略了文化在确定一个国家将有多大增长的作用。正如我所讨论的，文化影响人们对储蓄率或每周工作几个小时的决策，这在我们以前显示的指标中是衡量的，但文化也可以影响工作态度，效率水平，可靠性等对国家是否表现不佳或跑赢的影响。
Canada's culture looks to be neutral for growth in coming years because it is ranked 10 out of 20 countries in this culture gauge. Note that our culture measures compare Canada to countries of similar levels of economic development. Starting with self-sufficiency, Canada is rated about average on this measure, weighing that its workers have a somewhat weak work ethic, its level of government support is neutral (with government outlays at 46% of GDP), and its labor markets are very flexible. Canada also seems to value savoring a bit more than achieving - again, its work ethic is somewhat weak, and surveys suggest that its people moderately value accomplishment and achievement. Furthermore, innovation and commercialism are somewhat weak in Canada relative to income. We see the country investing neither lightly nor heavily in research and innovation, and its outputs from innovation, including inventions and earnings, are low. Finally, according to the international measures we are using, Canada has average levels of bureaucracy and red tape, average levels of corruption, and somewhat strong rule of law relative to its income.
加拿大的文化对于未来几年的增长来说是中立的，因为它在这个文化规模的20个国家中排名第10。请注意，我们的文化措施将加拿大与经济发展水平相近的国家相比较。从自给自足开始，加拿大在这一措施上被评为平均水平，认为其工人的工作态度有些薄弱，其政府支持水平是中性的（政府支出占国内生产总值的46％），其劳动力市场非常灵活。加拿大的价值观似乎还不止于实现 - 再次，其工作伦理略有下降，调查显示，其人民适度地取得成就和成就。此外，加拿大的创新和商业主义在收入方面略逊一筹。我们看到国家在研究和创新方面既不轻微也不大投资，创新产出，包括发明和收益，都是低收入的。最后，根据我们正在使用的国际措施，加拿大的官僚机构和繁文has节的平均水平，腐败的平均水平以及相对于其收入来说有一些强大的法治。
Indebtedness 债务
Think of debt growth that is faster than income growth as being like air in a scuba bottle-there is a limited amount of it that you can use to get an extra boost, but you can't live on it forever. When you are taking it out, you can spend more than is sustainable, but when debts can no longer be raised relative to incomes and the time for paying back comes, the process works in reverse. You can get a picture of where countries stand in the long-term debt cycle and the likelihood of debt being a support or detriment to future growth by assessing the past reliance on debt to support incomes and the attractiveness of taking on new debt.
认为债务增长速度比收入增长速度快，就像像潜水艇一样，空气有限，你可以用来增加额外的收益，但是你永远不会生活在这个水平上。当你把它拿出来的时候，你可以花费更多的可持续性，但是当债务不能相对于收入和偿还时间再提高时，这个过程是相反的。您可以通过评估过去依赖债务来支持收入和承担新债务的吸引力，了解各国在长期债务周期中的地位和债务是否支持未来增长的可能性。
The other major piece of our economic health index looks at the likelihood of debt being a support or detriment to future growth. Canada's indebtedness position is about average compared to other countries, ranked 9 out of the 20 countries we look at. The country has a bit of room to lever up in the future, with a total debt burden of around 274% of GDP, compared to the global average of 200-250%. In the past few years, its growth was neither supported nor depressed by credit creation, which is neutral for growth going forward. Lastly, the stance of monetary policy is generally neutral.
我们的经济健康指数的另一个重要部分是看债务是支持或有害于未来增长的可能性。与其他国家相比，加拿大的负债状况大致相当，在我们研究的20个国家中排名第9。该国在未来有一定的空间，总债务负担约占国内生产总值的274％，而全球平均水平为200-250％。近几年来，信贷创新的增长既不支撑，也不是压力，对于未来的增长是中立的。最后，货币政策的态度一般是中立的。