Mexico's Future Growth
Last updated
Last updated
Based on our economic health index, we project that Mexico's real growth rate over the next 10 years will be in the vicinity of 4.1% to 5.5%. This growth rate is somewhat above the global average, ranked 4 out of 20 major economies, and 3 out of 9 emerging countries. As a reminder, this estimate (and this writing) is based on our computer-generated analysis of the statistics detailed in Part 1, and doesn't account for exogenous shocks (like commodity or political shocks, or wars). In Mexico's case, our growth estimate comes from combining our expectation of a 2.8% growth rate per worker, which is well above the global average, and a labor force growth rate of 1.3%, which is well above other major economies. The growth in output per worker is driven significantly by productivity and indebtedness. Over the long-term productivity matters most, while swings in indebtedness tend to be an important driver in the short-term. Given we are looking at a 10 year time frame, we weigh our productivity measures about two thirds and our indebtedness measure about one third (though there is no precision here). Over the next 10 years, we expect Mexico's productivity to be somewhat better than most major countries (implying a growth rate of 3.9% on its own), and indebtedness conditions to be better than other countries (implying a growth rate of 4.7% on its own). As shown below, Mexico's biggest relative strengths are its debt and debt service levels and the value its workers provide relative to education levels, and its biggest relative problems are its reliance on credit flows for growth and its level of innovation/commercialism. The various gauges and weights are shown below. The individual indicators that are behind them are explained in Part 1 of this section, and listed in the appendix of this section. Please review this table to understand our comments.
根据我们的经济健康指数，我们预计墨西哥未来10年的实际增长率将在4.1％至5.5％附近。这一增长速度略高于全球平均水平，在20个主要经济体中排名第4，9个新兴国家中有3个。作为提醒，这个估计（和这篇文章）是基于我们对第1部分详细统计的计算机分析，并不考虑外部冲击（如商品或政治冲击或战争）。在墨西哥的情况下，我们的增长预期来自于我们对每名工人的增长率为2.8％的预期，这远高于全球平均水平，劳动力增长率为1.3％，远高于其他主要经济体。每个工人的产出增长主要受生产力和负债的驱动。在长期生产力方面，大多数情况下，负债波动往往是短期的重要驱动力。鉴于我们正在研究10年的时间范围，我们将生产力措施称为三分之二，而我们的债务衡量约三分之一（尽管这里没有精确度）。在接下来的十年中，我们预计墨西哥的生产率会比大多数主要国家好一些（意味着自己增长3.9％），债务状况要优于其他国家（意味着其增长率为4.7％拥有）。如下图所示，墨西哥最大的相对优势是其债务和债务偿还水平以及工人对教育水平的提供，其最大的相对问题是信贷流动对增长的依赖及其创新/商业主义水平。各种规格和重量如下所示。其背后的各个指标在本节的第1部分进行了说明，并在本节的附录中列出。请查看此表以了解我们的意见。
A country's productivity and competitiveness is mostly a function of the relative value it offers, especially for its labor. As shorthand for this, we refer to our gauge of this relative value as "what you pay versus what you get"; it reflects a) the cost and value of employees and b) the levels of investment. Countries that have well-educated workers that are relatively inexpensive and that have higher investment rates grow faster than those that don't.
一个国家的生产率和竞争力主要是其所提供的相对价值，特别是劳动力的一个功能。作为这方面的简写，我们将这个相对价值的衡量指标称为“你所付出的与你所得到的”;它反映了a）员工的成本和价值，以及b）投资水平。拥有受过良好教育的工人比较便宜，投资率高的国家比没有受过良好教育的工人要快。
Mexico offers somewhat better than average value, ranked 4 among the countries we measure. Its workers are somewhat inexpensive, even taking into consideration Mexico's somewhat low levels of education and very poor quality of education. Further, people in Mexico work hard relative to the cost of their labor - the average male of working age works 35 hours per week (4 out of 20 countries), and the demographics of the workforce are about average. Levels of saving and investing are roughly average given Mexico's low per capita income levels, with investment at about 14% of GDP (16 out of 20 countries).
墨西哥的平均价值略高于我们衡量的国家中的4个。它的工人有点廉价，甚至考虑到墨西哥教育水平偏低，教育质量差。此外，墨西哥的人们相对于劳动成本而言辛苦工作 - 平均每个工作年龄的男性每周工作35小时（20个国家中有4个），而且劳动人口的人口数据是平均数。由于墨西哥的人均收入水平较低，投资水平约为GDP的14％（20个国家中有16个）。
Just looking solely at the relative value of a country's workers misses the role that the culture plays in determining how much a country will grow. As I've discussed, culture influences the decisions people make about factors like savings rates or how many hours they work each week, which we measure in the previously shown indicators, but culture can also influence work attitudes, levels of efficiency, reliability and other such influences on whether countries underperform or outperform.
仅仅看一个国家工人的相对价值，就忽略了文化在确定一个国家将有多大增长的作用。正如我所讨论的，文化影响人们对储蓄率或每周工作几个小时的决策，这在我们以前显示的指标中是衡量的，但文化也可以影响工作态度，效率水平，可靠性等对国家是否表现不佳或跑赢的影响。
Mexico's culture looks to be neutral for growth in coming years because it is ranked 8 out of 20 countries in this culture gauge. Note that our culture measures compare Mexico to countries of similar levels of economic development. Starting with self-sufficiency, Mexico is rated very well on this measure, weighing that its workers have a strong work ethic, its level of government support is low (with government outlays at 27% of GDP), and its labor markets are very flexible. Mexico also seems to value achieving a bit more than savoring - again, its work ethic is strong, and surveys suggest that its people moderately value accomplishment and achievement. Furthermore, innovation and commercialism are somewhat weak in Mexico relative to income. We see the country investing lightly in research and innovation, and its outputs from innovation, including inventions and earnings, are low. Finally, according to the international measures we are using, Mexico has somewhat low bureaucracy and red tape, somewhat high corruption, and somewhat weak rule of law relative to its income.
墨西哥的文化在未来几年对于增长来说是中立的，因为它在这个文化规模的20个国家中排名第8。请注意，我们的文化措施将墨西哥与经济发展水平相似的国家相比较。墨西哥从自给自足开始，对这一措施的评价很好，认为其工人的工作态度很强，其政府支持水平低（政府支出占国内生产总值的27％），劳动力市场非常灵活。墨西哥的价值观也似乎不仅仅是品味，而且工作的道德素质也很强，调查显示，中国的人民适度地重视成就和成就。此外，墨西哥的创新和商业主义在收入方面略逊一筹。我们看到国家在研究和创新方面进行了轻微的投资，其创新产出，包括发明和收益都低。最后，根据我们正在使用的国际措施，墨西哥的官僚主义和繁文has节，腐败程度偏高，法治相对于其收入来说有些薄弱。
Indebtedness 债务
Think of debt growth that is faster than income growth as being like air in a scuba bottle-there is a limited amount of it that you can use to get an extra boost, but you can't live on it forever. When you are taking it out, you can spend more than is sustainable, but when debts can no longer be raised relative to incomes and the time for paying back comes, the process works in reverse. You can get a picture of where countries stand in the long-term debt cycle and the likelihood of debt being a support or detriment to future growth by assessing the past reliance on debt to support incomes and the attractiveness of taking on new debt.
认为债务增长速度比收入增长速度快，就像像潜水艇一样，空气有限，你可以用来增加额外的收益，但是你永远不会生活在这个水平上。当你把它拿出来的时候，你可以花费更多的可持续性，但是当债务不能相对于收入和偿还时间再提高时，这个过程是相反的。您可以通过评估过去依赖债务来支持收入和承担新债务的吸引力，了解各国在长期债务周期中的地位和债务是否支持未来增长的可能性。
The other major piece of our economic health index looks at the likelihood of debt being a support or detriment to future growth. Mexico's indebtedness position is better than other countries, ranked 3 out of the 20 countries we look at. The country has plenty of room to lever up in the future, with a total debt burden of around 84% of GDP, compared to the global average of 200-250%. In the past few years, its growth was supported by high credit creation, which is restrictive for growth going forward. Lastly, the stance of monetary policy is generally neutral.
我们的经济健康指数的另一个重要部分是看债务是支持或有害于未来增长的可能性。墨西哥的债务状况比其他国家好，在我们看到的20个国家中排名第3。该国在未来有充足的空间，总债务负担约占GDP的84％，而全球平均水平为200-250％。在过去几年中，其增长得到了信贷创造的高度支持，这是对增长的限制。最后，货币政策的态度一般是中立的。