Japan Deleveraging, 1990-Present

As shown below,Japan has been stuck in a moderate “ugly deflationary deleveraging” for over 20years. In 1989 the private sector debt bubble burst and government sector debt/fiscal expansion began, but there was never adequate “money printing/monetization” to cause nominal growth to be above nominal interest rates and to have the currency devalue. While Japan has eased some, nominal income growth has been stagnant, with persistent deflation eroding moderate real growth. Meanwhile, nominal debts have risen much faster, pushing debt levels higher, from about 400% of GDP at the end of 1989 to 500% today. Equities have declined by nearly 70%.

如下图所示，日本二十多年来一直处于温和的“丑化通货紧缩的去杠杆化”状态。1989年私人部门债务泡沫破灭，政府部门债务/财政扩张开始，但从来没有足够的“货币印刷/货币化”，使名义增长率超过名义利率，并使货币贬值。虽然日本已经放缓，名义收入增长停滞不前，持续的通货紧缩导致温和的实质增长。同时，名义债务上涨速度更快，推高债务水平较高，从1989年底的国内生产总值的400％上升到今天的500％。股票下跌近70％。

The BOJ has “printed/monetized” very little in duration-adjusted terms throughout the deleveraging process, with most of the printing that it has done going to short-term cash-like assets of little duration. As result, it has failed to reflate and the government is building a terrible debt burden.

日本央行在整个去杠杆化过程中，经过长时间调整的条款，“印刷/货币化”很少，大部分的印刷已经完成了持续时间短的类似现金的资产。因此，它没有重组，政府正在构建可怕的债务负担。

As shown in the table below, money creation has been limited at 0.7% of GDP per year, and the yen has appreciated 2.9% per year against the dollar. As a result, since 1990 real growth has averaged 1.1% with persistent deflation (averaging -0.5%). This has left nominal growth 2% below nominal interest rates which cumulatively has led to a large increase in the debt/income ratio. While the private sector has delevered modestly, Japan’s total debt level has climbed from 403% to 498% because of government borrowing and deflation.

如下表所示，创造金额每年限制在国内生产总值的0.7％，日元兑美元每年升值2.9％。因此，1990年实际增长平均为1.1％，持续通缩（平均为-0.5％）。这使得名义利率低于名义利率2％，累计导致债务/收入比大幅增长。虽然私营部门有所缓和，但由于政府借款和通货紧缩，日本债务总额已从403％上升至498％。

The charts below show how the Japan case developed over time, breaking out the cumulative contributions of different drivers to changes in debt burdens relative to incomes. In aggregate in the economy, new borrowing has merely covered continued debt service and no more. Persistent deflation has added to debt burdens, while defaults and real growth have reduced them.

下面的图表显示了日本案件如何随着时间的推移而发展，打破了不同司机对债务负担相对于收入变化的累积贡献。总的说来，新借款仅仅涵盖持续的债务偿还，不再有。持续的通货紧缩增加了债务负担，而违约和实际增长已经减少。

Debt levels for the private sector have fallen modestly. Defaults, real growth and paying down debt after paying interest have helped. Interest payments have been substantial and deflation has also added to debt burdens.

私营部门的债务水平略有下降。预期，实际增长和支付利息后偿还债务有所帮助。利息支出一直很大，通货紧缩也增加了债务负担。

Government borrowing has gone up significantly, mostly to cushion the weak private sector.

政府借款大幅上涨，主要是为了缓解私营部门疲软。

Weak nominal GDP growth has resulted from the combination of mediocre real GDP growth and deflation.

国内生产总值的平均增长是由平均的实际GDP增长与通货紧缩相结合造成的。

And nominal GDP growth rates have remained below Japanese government rates for most of this period, creating a persistent upwards pressure on debt burdens.

在这个时期的大部分时间里，国内生产总值的名义增长率一直都低于日本的政府利率，给债务负担带来了持续的上涨压力。