UK Deleveraging, 1947-1969 UK Deleveraging，1947-1969

The charts below show debt levels against nominal GDP growth year over year (left chart) and against the total return of stocks (right chart). Debt levels as % of GDP are on the right axis of each chart. The line shows where a significant amount of “money printing” occurred. The first phase is labeled (1) and the second phase is labeled (2). The UK acquired lots of debt both before and during World War II and entered a recession at the end of World War II, pushing debt burdens higher. As shown, from the end of 1943 to the end of 1947 debt levels rose from just above 250% of GDP to 400%. While in 1948 debt burdens dipped a bit with a recovery in incomes, in September 1949 the UK printed money and devalued the pound by 30% against the dollar and gold, at the same time also keeping short rates basically at zero. As a result nominal growth rose above nominal interest rates, debt levels fell by 250% and stocks rallied between 1948 and 1969.

下面的图表显示了债务水平与去年的名义GDP增长（左图）和股票总回报（右图）。债务水平占GDP的百分比在每个图表的右侧。该行显示了大量“货币打印”发生的地方。第一阶段标记为（1），第二阶段标记为（2）。英国在第二次世界大战之前和之后获得了很多债务，并在第二次世界大战结束时进入了衰退期，从而使债务负担更高。如图所示，从1943年底到1947年底，债务水平从刚刚超过国内生产总值的250％上升到400％。1948年，债务负担有所回落，1949年9月，英国打印货币，贬值了英镑，兑美元和黄金上涨了30％，同时基准利率基本维持在零水平。因此，名义利率上升超过名义利率，债务水平下降了250％，股票在1948年和1969年之间上涨。

At the same time that the UK kept interest rates low with easy money during the period, there was a big currency devaluation in 1949 and the BOE increased asset purchases to about 1% GDP in 1950, both of which helped to keep nominal growth above nominal interest rates, which was the most important influence in lowering the debt/income ratio.

与此同时英国在这段期间保持低利率的低利率，1949年货币贬值较大，而京东方在1950年将资产购买增加到约1％，这两者都有助于保持名义增长超过名义利率是降低债务/收入比率的最重要影响因素。

The table below shows how the most important part of this deleveraging occurred. I broke it up into two parts – from 1947 to 1959 and from 1960 to 1969 because they were a bit different.

下表显示了这种去杠杆化的最重要的部分是如何发生的。我分为两部分 - 从1947年到1959年，从1960年到1969年，因为它们有所不同。

As shown below, as a result of this mix in policies, the decline in total debt in the post-war period occurred via a rise in nominal GDP which outpaced more modest increases in the amount of new borrowing. Inflation of around 4% from 1947-1970 drove nearly 2/3 of the decline in debt to GDP that is attributable to GDP growth. Net new borrowing was small as borrowing for interest payments was offset by paying down debts. This is shown in the chart below.

如下图所示，由于政策混合，战后债务总额的下降是通过名义GDP增长，新借款额上升幅度略有上升。1947 - 1970年间通货膨胀率约为4％，导致国内生产总值增长的债务下降近三分之二。新借款净额较小，借款利息支付被抵销。如下图所示。

The same is true for both the government and the private sector. The net new borrowing by the government was relatively small through the period, particularly from 1947-1960. The charts below show the attributions of the changes in the debt ratios.

政府和私营部门也是如此。这个时期，特别是1947 - 1960年间，政府的新借款净额相对较小。以下图表显示了负债比率变动的归属。