Overview

Depressions arise when (a) debt service obligations become unsustainably large in relation to the cash flows to service them, (b) investors seek to convert a large amount of financial assets into cash, and (c) monetary policy is ineffective. Because monetary policy is ineffective in creating credit, credit creation turns into credit contraction until this fundamental imbalance between the need for cash and the amount of cash available is rectified. Until the fundamental imbalance is rectified, a cash shortage causes debt and liquidity problems. This cash shortage, and these liquidity problems, cause financial assets to be sold for cash (i.e., M0), which worsens the cash shortage and puts the central bank in the position of having to choose between (a) keeping the amount of money the same and allowing the shortage of cash to become more acute, thus driving up interest rates and causing the credit crisis to worsen, and (b) printing more money, thus depreciating its value. The Weimar Republic case study, like the 1980s Latin America case study, is interesting in examining the dynamic behind the process of alleviating the fundamental imbalance primarily through the creation of cash (i.e., M0)

大蕭條興起始於當（a）债务偿还义务与为其服务的现金流量相比变得不可持续，（b）投资者试图将大量金融资产转为现金，（c）货币政策无效。由于货币政策在创造信贷方面无效，信贷创造就变成信贷收缩，直到现金需求与可用现金数额之间的根本不平衡得到纠正。直到根本不平衡得到纠正，现金短缺导致债务和流动性问题。这种现金短缺和这些流动性问题导致金融资产以现金出售（即M0），这会使现金短缺恶化，使中央银行无法选择（a）保留金额同样，使现金短缺变得更加尖锐，从而带动利率上升，造成信贷危机恶化，（b）印刷更多的钱，从而贬值。魏玛共和国案例研究，像20世纪80年代的拉丁美洲案例研究，很有趣的是，通过创造现金（即M0）来研究缓解基本失衡的过程背后的动态，

As with the other cases of deleveraging, in this case, there were many swings in markets and economic conditions so, from the perspective of someone trying to navigate through this period, it is important to understand these swings and see the cause-effect relationships behind them.

与其他去杠杆化的情况一样，在这种情况下，市场和经济状况出现了很多波动，所以从有人尝试在这个时期进行观察的角度来看，理解这些波动是很重要的，并且看到后面的因果关系他们。

To help to convey the big picture before I get into the chronology, I want to show a few charts of the total timeframe. The ones that follow show the real stock market, the real exchange rate, real economic activity, and the inflation rate from 1913-1927, with the vertical lines designating the beginnings of each of the four phases referred to in the table of contents. The percentages noted in each chart are meant to convey the very big swings along the way. It is very important for us to understand what caused these swings and to visualize how our game plan would have navigated these. The chronology that follows will explain these movements.

为了帮助我在进入年表之前表达大局，我想展示总时间表的几个图表。其次是从1913年至1927年间的真实股票市场，实际汇率，实际经济活动和通货膨胀率，垂直线指定了目录中提到的四个阶段的起点。每张图表中的百分比是为了传达沿途的很大的波动。了解造成这些波动的原因，以及我们的游戏计划如何导航这些，这是非常重要的。下面的年表将解释这些运动。

In order to gain a big picture perspective, it is also important to view Germany’s deleveraging within the context of the world economy at the time. To convey this, the table below shows industrial production (a proxy for economic activity) for Germany, France, the UK, and the US. Note that (a) Germany’s economic activity plunged more severely than other economies after the war, (b) the German economy grew, while the UK and France contracted in 1921, and (c) the German economy plunged while the UK and France grew in 1923. You will also note the recovery that followed the post-war deleveraging and that occurred in 1920-22, and that it was followed by the very classic inflationary deleveraging that occurred in 1922-1923. The reasons will also be made clear in the chronology.

为了获得更大的视野，在当时世界经济背景下，看德国的去杠杆化也很重要。为了表达这一点，下表显示了德国，法国，英国和美国的工业生产（经济活动的代表）。请注意：（a）德国的经济活动在战后比其他经济体更为严重，（b）德国经济增长，英国和法国在1921年缩小，（c）德国经济在英国和法国增长你也会注意到战后去杠杆化和1920-22年发生的复苏，其后是经典的通货膨胀去杠杆化发生在1922 - 1923年。原因也将在年表中明确。