World War I Period 1914 – November 1918

World War I began in 1914 and ended in November 1918. It set the stage for the period that we will be examining because it resulted in Germany having very large domestic and foreign debts. During the war years, Germany spent a lot of money on the war, much of which was financed by borrowing from its people; it then lost the war and acquired a huge foreign debt in the form of war reparations. While Germany’s deleveraging was largely a consequence of the debts arising from the war, deleveragings are debt crises, regardless of their causes, so the fact that Germany’s arose from the war is essentially irrelevant to our examination of the inflationary deleveraging dynamic.

第一次世界大战于1914年11月开始，于1918年11月结束，由于德国国内外债务很大，因此我们将在此期间进行审议。在战争时期，德国花费了大量资金用于战争，其中大部分是借钱从人民出资的;然后失去战争，并以战争赔偿的形式获得了巨额的外债。虽然德国的去杠杆主要是战争所引起的债务的后果，但杠杆化是债务危机，不管其原因如何，所以德国从战争中产生的事实本质上与我们对通货膨胀的去杠杆化动态的考察无关。

As with most countries at the time, Germany was on the gold standard at the beginning of the war – i.e., to borrow money, it guaranteed the value of the money by promising to convert money into gold. When it was unable to meet those commitments it defaulted – i.e., it broke its promise to allow holders of currency to convert it to gold.

与当时的大多数国家一样，德国在战争开始时就处于黄金标准 - 即借款，它通过承诺将资金转换为黄金来保证金钱的价值。当它无法履行它所违约的承诺 - 即它打破了承诺，允许货币持有人把它转换成黄金。

For Germany default came on August 4, 1914 when the Reichsbank (Germany’s central bank) “suspended” the conversion of money for gold. As with all other countries’ suspensions of gold convertibility, this default occurred because investors executed their right to turn their money into gold in large numbers, which caused the government’s gold reserves to fall a lot, so that it became obvious that the central bank would not have enough gold to fulfill its commitment. Whenever (a) the amount of money in circulation is much greater than the amount of gold held in reserves to back the money at the designated price of conversion, and (b) investors are converting money into gold because they are worried about the value of their money, the central bank is in the untenable position of having to either reduce the supply of money in circulation (i.e., tighten credit) or to end convertibility and print more money. Central banks almost always choose suspending convertibility and printing more money. Such was the case in mid-August 1914 in Germany. At that time, the Reichsbank chose to break its promise to deliver gold so that it could freely print money. On the same date, another law passed that authorized the Reichsbank to discount short-term bills issued by the Treasury and to use them, together with commercial bills, as collateral for its notes. So also, on August 4 the central bank decided to free itself from all constraints that limited its ability to print money and simultaneously initiate money printing activities. According to the weekly statements of the Reichsbank, in the two weeks from July 24 to August 7, the quantity of the Reichsbank notes in circulation increased by more than two billion marks,258 an increase of approximately 30%. Knowing that this move would lead to inflation, on the same date (August 4), a "Law Concerning Maximum Prices,“ which imposed price controls and a freeze in rents,259 was also passed by the Reichstag. Nonetheless, as a result of this decision to eliminate constraints on money production, currency and credit inflation began in Germany directly after the outbreak of the war.

对于德国的违约是1914年8月4日，德国央行（德国央行）“暂停”兑换黄金 。与所有其他国家暂停黄金可兑换一样，这种违约事件是因为投资者将其金钱大量转为黄金的权利，这导致政府的黄金储备下降了很多，因此显而易见的是中央银行没有足够的黄金来履行其承诺。每当（a）流通中的金额远远大于以指定转换价格支付货币的储备金量，以及（b）投资者将货币转换为黄金，因为他们担心的是价值他们的钱，中央银行处于不得不减少流通资金供应（即收紧信贷）或终止可兑换性并打印更多资金的地位 。中央银行几乎总是选择中止可兑换和打印更多的钱。就是在1914年8月中旬在德国的情况。那时候，帝国银行选择打破黄金的承诺，以便自由打印钱。同一天，另一项法律通过，授权帝国银行折抵库务局发行的短期票据，并将其与商业票据一并用作票据抵押品。所以8月4日，中央银行决定摆脱限制其打印资金的能力的所有制约因素，同时启动货币印刷活动 。据德国国家银行的每周报告，在两周内从7月24日至8月7日，德国国家银行的数量发行货币增加了两个以上的十亿马克，3 同比增长约30％。知道这一举动将导致通货膨胀，同一天（8月4日），国会通过了一项“实行价格管制和冻结租金”的“最高价格法” 4 。尽管如此，由于这一消除货币生产限制的决定，货币和信贷通货膨胀在战争爆发后直接开始在德国。

Before 1914 gold coins represented about 40% of the monetary base, but they were withdrawn from circulation by the Reichsbank after the outbreak of war. The Reichsbank’s gold reserves amounted to 1,253 million marks on July 31, 1914. Because the central bank took the private gold into its possession (i.e., because the government essentially confiscated the gold from private investors), at the end of 1918, the Reichsbank had 2,262 million marks in gold –i.e., its gold reserves had nearly doubled.

1914年之前，金币占货币基数的40％左右，但在战争爆发后，它们被帝国银行从流通中撤出。帝国银行的黄金储备在1914年7月31日达到了12.53亿马克。由于中央银行拥有私人黄金（即由于政府本来没收私人投资者的黄金），到1918年底，帝国银行黄金的2262万马克，其黄金储备几乎翻了一番。

These moves—i.e., eliminating the link between currency and gold, printing a lot of money to buy government debt, and establishing price controls—are classic ingredients of reflation. In all cases, they are accompanied by currency devaluations and gold revaluations. They are frequently accompanied by the government outlawing gold and the government taking it into its possession. Often these moves are accompanied by foreign exchange controls. The last time this mix of policies was deployed in the U.S. was in 1971. These things happened in Germany in 1914.

这些动作 - 即消除货币与黄金之间的联系，印刷大量资金购买政府债务，并建立价格管制 - 是通货膨胀的经典成分 。在所有情况下，都伴随着货币贬值和黄金重估。他们经常伴随政府取缔黄金，政府将其占有。这些举动通常伴随着外汇控制 。最后一次这种政策组合在美国部署在1971年。这些事情发生在德国在1914年。

The printing of money was primarily to fund the government’s deficits and alleviate other debt burdens. The table below shows, in millions marks, the total income, expenditure and budget deficit of the German Reich during the years 1914-1918. As conveyed, in these war years, the amounts of money spent and the deficits increased a lot.

打印资金主要是为了资助政府的赤字，减轻其他债务负担 。下表显示了德国帝国在1914 - 1918年间的总收入，支出和预算赤字百万分之一。据传，在这些战争年代，花费的钱和赤字增加了很多。

The difference between the total expenditure and the total income was covered by issuing Treasury bills that were bought by the Reichsbank, which directly increased the currency in circulation,261 fueling inflation. Naturally, investors worried about the depreciating value of their money ran to gold, essentially the only non- credit based money, so gold was outlawed.

总支出和总收入之间的差异通过发行是由德国国家银行，流通这直接增加了货币，261助长通胀买国库券覆盖。当然，投资者担心他们的货币贬值是黄金，基本上是唯一的非信贷资金，所以黄金是非法的。

The debt that the German government issued to finance the war was primarily floating debt because investors had become wary about lending the government money in exchange for longer maturity debt,262 fearing that they would be paid back with depreciated money. These fears were learned, arising from investors who had held long-term bonds being burned. The issuing of floating debt required the government to print more money faster in order to pay off these short-term debts in depreciated rather than hard money, which drove depositors into even shorter term money, and so on, until in the autumn of 1916 investors became wary about lending, even short term, so the sums yielded by the loans were always less than the amounts of the floating debt.

德国政府出资资助这场战争的债务主要是浮动债务，因为投资者对于借贷政府资金以换取更长期债务而担心，262担心会以贬值的方式偿还。这些恐惧是由于长期债券被焚烧的投资者而产生的。浮动债务的发行要求政府更快地打印更多的资金，以偿还这些贬值的短期债务，而不是硬的钱，这使得存款人变得更短的期限，等等，直到1916年秋天的投资者对贷款甚至短期担心，贷款产生的金额总是低于浮动债务的金额。

After the outbreak of the war, the publication of war statistics stopped. They were only renewed in 1920. As a result, data for this period is sparse.

战争爆发后，战争统计数据的公布停止了。他们只在1920年更新。其结果是，这一时期的数据是稀疏的。

As shown below, (a) this was a period of rising prices globally, (b) the rates of inflation in Germany outpaced those in other countries and rose at steadily increasing rates through 1918, and (c) the stock market fell by 38% in nominal terms and 46% in real terms in 1914.

如下所示，（a）这是全球价格上涨的时期，（b）德国的通货膨胀率超过其他国家的通货膨胀率，并在1918年以一直稳步增长的速度上升，（c）股市下跌了38％名义上是1914年的46％。