Working Hard Subcomponent: Demographics

There is a natural cycle to how hard a person works and what they contribute, and typically one’s working years are the most hard-working and productive ones. So it follows that societies go through long ebbs and flows in terms of how hard they work in aggregate, based on how much of that society is of working age versus very young or old and dependent.

有一个自然循环，一个人的努力程度和他们的贡献，通常一个工作年是最努力和最有成效的工作。因此，社会根据社会工作年龄与非常年轻或老龄而依赖的年龄有多大程度，经历了长期的衰退和流动。

Demographic pressures are measured by the projected change in the dependency ratio over the next 10 years. This represents the projected rise or decline in the proportion of a country’s population that is young or old relative to those of working age. Our expectation is that a rise in the proportion of dependents (e.g., elderly individuals) would be a negative for the overall work effort in society and thereby for growth, all else equal.

人口压力是由未来10年的依赖比例的预测变化来衡量的。这代表了一个国家年龄相对较小或相对于工作年龄的人口比例的预计上升或下降。我们的期望是，受抚养人（例如老年人）比例的上升将对社会总体工作努力，从而对增长而言是负面的，一切都是平等的。

In general, most major developed countries in the world today are likely to see a drag on their future growth in income per worker from these demographic shifts, due to increasingly aging populations. This impact is particularly acute for Japan but significant in the US, Europe, and UK. The picture is more mixed in the emerging world. Demographic pressures are a support in India but a drag in China, Russia and Korea, due to their aging populations. Adjusting for cost levels exacerbates the negative picture for the developed world. In the emerging world India is the one country that stands out as having a positive pressure after adjusting for cost; the pressure looks more muted in most of the rest, including China.

一般来说，由于人口日益老化，今天世界上大多数主要发达国家可能会因为这些人口变化而拖累未来工人收入增长。这种影响对日本来说特别严重，但在美国，欧洲和英国都是显着的。在新兴的世界里，这张照片更加混合。人口压力是印度的支持，但由于人口老龄化，中国，俄罗斯和韩国的拖累。调整成本水平加剧了发达国家的消极情况。在新兴世界，印度是调整成本之后突出的一个国家正面临压力;在大部分其他地区，包括中国在内的压力看起来更为静音。